On Thursday 18 April, the European Parliament published its fourth and final projection of the distribution of seats in the next European Parliament, with the United Kingdom included, as it is now due to participate in the elections from 23 to 26 May.
According to the latest picture, the EPP group will have 180 seats, two fewer than in the previous predictions from the end of March (see EUROPE 12225/2), which had to be updated to include the United Kingdom and its 73 seats. The S&D and ECR groups are set to lose 7 MEPs each, falling from 156 to 149 and from 73 to 66 respectively. The ALDE group are set to have 3 fewer seats (down from 79 to 76) and the ENF one fewer (down from 63 to 62).
The projections for the Greens/EFA and GUE/NGL groups are identical to the projections in March, with 57 and 46 seats respectively, and the same is true for the non-attached MEPs (8).
The EFDD will be the big winner according to this new projection, with 10 additional seats, up from 35 to 45 seats, and the 'other' group (new parties not yet affiliated to political groups) are also predicted to win 10 seats (up from 52 to 62).
EPP and S&D to sustain greatest losses, ENF to make biggest gains
The projections suggest that, in comparison with the current Parliament, and despite the number of its MEPs dropping from 217 to 180, the EPP will still be the largest group, with 24% of the total in the European Parliament, ahead of the S&D on 19.8% (149 MEPs compared with 186 at the moment). These two groups are each set to lose 37 MEPs, each one down five percentage points in comparison with the current European Parliament.
The projections suggest that the EPP group will be made up from 26 national delegations, two fewer than at present, with an increase in MEPs from Greece (+4) and significant decreases in seven countries: France (-7 MEPs), Slovakia and Poland (-5 each), Spain, Italy, Germany and the Czech Republic (-4 MEPs each).
The S&D group is projected to be still made up of 28 delegations, with an increase of four MEPs in Spain, and significant decreases in Italy (-15), Germany (-10) and France (-8).
The ECR is projected to lose 10 MEPs (1.3%), making up 8.8% of the European Parliament. It is projected only to have 14 national delegations, five fewer than at present. Although the group is projected to gain three more Dutch MEPs, it is expected to lose 7 British and 6 German MEPs.
The GUE/NGL group is projected to lose six MEPs - three from Spain and three from Italy - (-0.8 points) and to make up 6.1% of MEPs from 14 national delegations, as at present.
The ENF, on the other hand, is expected to make the biggest gains, not so much in terms of delegations - nine, one more than now, but in terms of MEPs, as it is projected to gain 25 more seats, up from 37 to 62, with a strong increase in its numbers of Italian (+20) and French (+5) MEPs. According to projections, it will then make up 8.3% of the European Parliament (+3.3 points), becoming the fifth largest group.
ALDE is projected to gain eight MEPs and to stand at 10.1% (+1.1% compared with the current European Parliament) and the Greens at 7.6% with five more MEPs (+0.7%).
The projections suggest that ALDE will be made up of 23 delegations, an increase of two, with large increases in the numbers of MEPs from Germany and the United Kingdom (+5 each) and the Czech Republic (+4).
The Greens/EFA are projected to lose three national delegations, with three Spanish seats expected to be lost, but an increase in the number of German (+6) and British MEPs (+4).
The EFDD will find itself in a strange position, according to projections. Although it is expected to gain four more MEPs in comparison with the current Parliament (6% of the new Parliament, up 0.5%), it is nevertheless projected to lose two national delegations, down to just five in total, and would therefore not be able to form a group, as this requires delegations from at least a quarter of the Member States. A sharp increase in the number of German (+10) and Italian (+4) MEPs is forecast, as is a decrease in the number of French (-6) and British (-3) MEPs.
The report is available at: https://bit.ly/2GsFnca (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)