A third forecast of the distribution of seats in the next European Parliament, which was announced on Friday 29 March by the European Parliament, shows that the EPP group (with seven more MEPs), the S&D group (seven more MEPs) and the ECR group (also with seven more MEPs) are expected to be in a better position than suggested by the second forecast on 1 March (see EUROPE 12205/17).
This, the penultimate European Parliament forecast, following the Bureau's decision to complete the polling exercise on 23 April (see EUROPE 12222/5), shows that the EPP group (with 188 MEPs, 26.7% of the total in the current Parliament on 29 March, compared to 25.7% in the poll published on1 March) would still lose 2.3 percentage points compared to its influence in the current Parliament, with an increase in Greece (four more MEPs) and more significant decreases in six countries: France (seven fewer MEPs, compared with nine fewer according to the 1 March poll), Czech Republic (five fewer), Spain, Italy and Slovakia (four fewer MEPs from the three countries) and Poland (three fewer MEPs).
For the S&D group (20.1% of the European Parliament on 29 March, or 142 MEPs, compared with 19.1% on 1 March), the decrease predicted in the next European Parliament will still be significant (-4.7%) compared to the current situation, especially in Italy (13 fewer seats), Germany and France (nine fewer from the two countries). An increase of five seats is anticipated from Spain.
The CRE group (53 MEPs, or 7.5% of the total in the next Parliament) is expected to record a 2.6 point decrease compared with the current position, but with increases in the Netherlands (four more seats) and Poland (three more) compared with the number of current members of the European Parliament.
The ALDE group, with a total of 10.2% (a total of 72 seats, compared with 75 in the 1 March poll), is predicted to gain 1.1 percentage points compared with the current Parliament, with strong voting intentions recorded in Germany (four more seats) and the Czech Republic (three more).
According to polling, the GUE/NGL group will have 7% of the seats (three more seats in France, three fewer in Italy).
With a total of 51 seats (two more than in the 1 March forecast), polling suggests the Greens/EFA group will make up 7.2% of the total (0.3% more than in the current European Parliament), including six more MEPs from Germany.
According to polling, the EFDD group will make up 4.3% of the total (-1.2 points compared with the size of this group in the current Parliament) with increases in Germany (nine more seats) and Italy (four more seats) and a decrease in France (six fewer MEPs).
The ENF group is expected to make up 8.7% of members of the new European Parliament (8.4% in the 1 March poll), with 21 more seats projected in Italy and six more in France.
The 'other' group (new parties not yet affiliated to political groups) are expected to have 52 MEPs (14 fewer than in the poll published on 1 March), including 22 elected from the La République en marche list in France.
The European elections will take place from 23 to 26 May. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)