Apparently, there have been two major shifts in UK Brexit policy this week. You just have to look really close to find them.
One is the government’s willingness to delay Brexit day (if all else fails); and the other is the opposition Labour Party’s explicit support for a second Brexit referendum (again, only if all else fails) (see EUROPE 12202).
The UK government has pledged to hold a “second meaningful vote” by 12 March on the EU exit deal (the first was in January, but it turned out it wasn’t meaningful enough, see EUROPE 12172); if that fails, to allow Parliament a vote on whether to quit the EU without a deal; and if both of those fail, to seek a “short limited extension” (not beyond the end of June) to the Article 50 negotiating period.
But the government is still pinning its hopes on the EU coming up with legal guarantees that would allow attorney general Geoffrey Cox to revise his legal opinion about the Irish backstop (which, the argument goes, would reassure both the Democratic Unionists and Conservative backbenchers). Mr Cox was in Brussels again this week for “technical talks”, but the message from Brussels is the same as it ever was.
“Reaffirming our unity, determination and patience to achieve an orderly withdrawal, as we wait for next steps in U.K. ratification process,” EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier tweeted this week, adding, “It takes two to waltz!” French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated his long-held position that an extension will only be granted for a good reason. “Under no circumstances would we accept an extension without a clear perspective,” he said this week. German chancellor Angela Merkel was a little more upbeat: “If the UK needs a little bit more time, we will not say no” (see EUROPE 12203).
A short Article 50 extension is not hugely problematic for the EU. Or, as the European Policy Centre’s Larissa Brunner and Fabian Zuleeg wrote this week, “a single technical extension of several weeks, up to the European elections”. Any longer, Brunner and Zuleeg say, and the EU risks losing political leverage and having to cope with a “toxic” European election campaign in the UK (as EU lawyers are all agreed that all EU member states must hold elections).
The European Parliament’s latest election projection has Eurosceptic parties (combined) taking around 150 seats, more than the socialists, and almost as many as the European People’s Party (see other news). A proxy Brexit election going on in the background could easily multiply that – even if those British MEPs never take their seats. And even if the UK refuses to hold an election altogether, the EU’s work cannot be held up, according to confidential advice from the parliament's in-house lawyers (as seen by the Financial Times).
Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts says that if the next meaningful vote fails, then "the UK must ask for an extension to Article 50 with a credible plan for holding a People's Vote on the final deal that includes an option to remain”.
That kind of thinking – as well as growing support in the UK for a second Brexit referendum – has definitely shaken hardline Tory MPs, who fear the choice is now between Theresa May’s deal or no Brexit at all. They sent a sharp message to the government this week when around 100 backbenchers either voted against or abstained on an amendment that would block a no-deal exit. And former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab said on BBC Radio’s Today show on Friday that a 'no deal’ exit could even be a success.
What’s going on in Labour land? Aside from a political shift in favour of a (possible) second referendum, the party is in the midst of a blazing antisemitism row that, along with Brexit, has cost the party nine MPs (eight of whom have gone on to form an “Independent Group” with some Tory defectors).
All of this leaves citizens and companies in complete disarray. Theresa May says the rights of the three million EU citizens living in the UK will be protected, even in the event of no deal, while the EU has pledged to – at least temporarily – safeguard all social security and citizenship rights in the event of a no-deal exit. The EU stopped short of agreeing with another UK request to carve out the citizens deal from the withdrawal agreement (“nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”).
So all we know for sure is that nobody knows anything for sure. (Sarah Collins)