The UK Parliament has shot down the prime minister's Brexit strategy, yet again, making it even less likely the EU will agree to change the draft withdrawal agreement. “Nevertheless, she persists,” to slightly misquote the recent US feminist maxim.
Thursday saw 303 MPs (to 258) vote against Theresa May’s motion on how to secure a Brexit deal, with Brexiteer backbenchers abstaining (see other news). The vote, however, was “indicative” rather than binding – or meaningless, rather than meaningful – with the prime minister not even bothering to show up in the Commons to hear the results.
Earlier in the week, Mrs May had sent her Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, to Brussels and Strasbourg, but proper Brexit negotiations – the kind that took place in 2017-18 – have not resumed. And with another UK parliament vote due on 27 February and a May-Juncker rendezvous scheduled around the same time, they are unlikely to resume any time soon.
The strategy on both sides seems to be to run down the clock until the EU summit on 21-22 March, or until Brexit day on 29 March. The UK’s Brexit pointman, Olly Robbins, was overheard in Brussels this week saying as much, adding that the EU would likely grant the UK an extension to the Article 50 process rather than risk a no-deal Brexit.
The EU’s analysis is not a million miles away. The fear in Brussels for some time now has been that British MPs will only get serious about Brexit when it’s on their doorstep. French Europe minister Nathalie Loiseau said on Twitter on Friday: “Faced with this uncertainty, it’s up to each individual to prepare for a no-deal #Brexit. Ireland’s foreign minister, Simon Coveney, told reporters in Dublin that the lack of clarity following Thursday’s vote was “frustrating”. He is under increasing pressure after a senior EU diplomat told Reuters that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the government will have to create a customs border on the island or face a de facto border with the rest of the EU single market.
So what happens now?
The UK’s strategy remains the same: to ask for changes to the withdrawal agreement that would make the Irish border backstop time-limited or unilaterally revocable. The EU says this is impossible, though it is considering review clauses and more binding legal language.
Andrew Duff, a former British liberal MEP and ongoing voice of reason in the Brexit debate, says that changes to the political declaration and a new legally binding annex to the withdrawal agreement could provide a way out of the deadlock – but it would mean the UK dropping its red lines on an independent trade policy and free movement. A new “customs accord” for goods could help solve the Irish border conundrum, he says, while the EU should use “less weasely and more positive” language about future trade.
Mr Barclay is expected back in Brussels to meet EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier on Monday afternoon, UK officials say. But they have “nothing else to confirm for now”. (Sarah Collins)