EU Foreign Ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday 18 February to discuss the situation in Ukraine, Syria, the Horn of Africa and, over lunch, Venezuela.
Ukraine. Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine, a few days before the fifth anniversary of the events at Maidan Square, which will be attended by the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk.
Following a visit by a needs assessment mission to the east of the country and in the vicinity of the Sea of Azov, diplomatic leaders should discuss what measures Europeans could take to help these regions.
In December, the European Council expressed its readiness to take support measures, including financial measures (see EUROPE 12159).
“The Council's objective is an agreement by the ministers to move forward and grant credits - in the form of loans or grants - to ensure that these destabilised regions, also by the closure of the Azov Sea, can have a breath of fresh air," explained a European diplomat on Friday 15 February. According to him, the measures could concern infrastructure (water, electricity), socio-economic recovery and governance assistance.
While Europeans are currently working on targeted sanctions against those responsible for the tensions in the Azov Sea and in particular for the arrest of 24 Ukrainian sailors in November, they are not yet ready. “They could come soon," said one European official, however.
Ministers may wish to revisit the renewal of the mandate of the EUAM mission. If this is not called into question, Member States have differences on the mission's continued presence in the east of the country.
Progress in terms of reforms should be addressed. “Much has been done, but more needs to be done," several sources summarised, which focused on the fight against corruption.
The elections scheduled in Ukraine in the coming months – March and April for the presidential elections and autumn for the parliamentary elections – could be discussed. Europeans are concerned about possible Russian interference and regret that the Ukrainian Parliament has passed a law banning the presence of Russian OSCE observers in the elections (see EUROPE 12190).
Ahead of the Foreign Affairs Council, the ministers will meet their Ukrainian counterpart, Pavlo Klimkin, at a 'Friends of Ukraine' breakfast organised by the Danes.
Syria. Initially planned during the Gymnich meeting, but postponed due to a lack of time, the discussion on Syria should allow ministers to review the situation on the ground, as the regime recovers and increasingly normalises its relations with certain Gulf countries, as the United States has announced its withdrawal and as the new UN special envoy, Geir Pedersen, tries to get the political process started again.
The discussion will also include the international conference ‘Brussels 3’, to be held from 12 to 14 March in Brussels, which will focus on both humanitarian aid and the international community's support for a political solution.
According to several sources, the debate in the Council should serve as a reminder of the EU's positions: - support for the political process under the aegis of the UN; - provision of reconstruction assistance only in the event of a political transition; - no normalisation of relations with Bashar al-Assad.
DRC. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini, and ministers will have an exchange of views on the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), "where many questions still arise, even though President Felix Tshisekedi has already taken the oath”, a senior European official said on Friday.
The EU joined the African Union (AU), which recognised the new president challenged by opponent Martin Fayulu, and indicated at the first joint AU/EU ministerial meeting at the end of January that it was Mr Tshisekedi's responsibility to meet the population's social, economic and governance expectations and to engage in dialogue with all parties and partners (see EUROPE 12177).
President Tshisekedi was congratulated on his election at the 32nd AU summit in Addis Ababa and elected Chairman of the AU bureau, while Mr Fayulu's request to establish a special committee to verify the results of the elections was not met. Ms Mogherini had met with Mr Tshisekedi on the margins of the AU summit.
Horn of Africa. The High Representative will report to Ministers on her recent visit to the Horn of Africa (see EUROPE 12191, 12190).
The ministerial exchange of views will focus on the positive prospects arising from the historic peace agreement reached in July between Eritrea and Ethiopia, and on EU support for accelerating reconciliation and economic integration throughout the Horn of Africa.
Venezuela. Over lunch, Ministers will discuss the Venezuelan crisis again, following the first meeting of the International Contact Group (see EUROPE 12190), but will not adopt a new declaration (see EUROPE 12193).
Not recognising Nicolás Maduro's second term, the Twenty-eight are unanimous in calling for new, credible presidential elections, with a new election being one of the objectives of the contact group that will meet again in March at ministerial level, and to reject the military option. They are not to recognise the legitimacy of the self-proclaimed President Juan Guaidó, the President of the National Assembly.
The delivery of foreign humanitarian aid to Venezuelans who have remained in the country or who are refugees in border countries is another issue in the current crisis, while Mr Guaidó has set an ultimatum for his entry on 23 February. Some of the EU's aid reaches Venezuelans, even if the Maduro regime is trying to block its entry. The objective of the Europeans, who wish to open a humanitarian liaison office in Caracas, is to avoid politicising the delivery of their aid by using channels such as the Red Cross or UN agencies. A task force including European experts will be in Caracas for this purpose.
North Macedonia. During the current affairs session, ministers could welcome the entry into force of the Prespa Agreement, and the change of name from the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to the Republic of North Macedonia (see other news).
Yemen. Without discussion, the Council will adopt conclusions on Yemen, in which it is expected to welcome the Stockholm Agreement from last December and reiterate its determination to support the political process under the aegis of the United Nations. The Council should therefore invite the parties to the conflict to remain committed to this process, with a view to future talks.
CSDP. Still without debate, the heads of diplomacy should extend until January 2021 the EUCAP Sahel Mali mission, which provides training and strategic advice to the Malian police, gendarmerie and national guard as well as to the relevant Malian ministries, in order to support security sector reform.
Ministers should also decide on further regionalisation of the work of CSDP missions in the Sahel, i.e. EUCAP Sahel Mali, EUCAP Sahel Niger and EUTM Mali. This is a second phase in regionalisation, after the first decided in June 2018 (see EUROPE 12048). Coordination should be based in Mauritania, in Nouakchott.
Belarus. Ministers are expected to extend for one year the sanctions against four people linked to the disappearances of two politicians, a businessman and a journalist in Belarus, as well as the arms embargo.
Intensify climate diplomacy. The Council will adopt without debate new conclusions on intensifying climate diplomacy which should welcome the results of COP 24 and reiterate the need to address the impacts of climate change on peace and security (see EUROPE 11969).
The Council should also stress the importance of accelerating climate action in Europe this year and raising global ambition to take into account the warnings of the IPCC and the UN Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant, Aminata Niang, Mathieu Bion with Damien Genicot)