It would come as a surprise if European leaders, on Thursday 18 October, did not send a message of encouragement to all parties of the Paris Agreement on climate to take into account the latest alarming IPPC special report and to promote the success of the COP24 in Katowice (Poland) on 3-14 December. They are not expected to take any commitment to unilaterally step up the EU’s level of ambition by 2020.
According to the draft conclusions on the table, the heads of state and/or government will take on board the conclusions of the EU Environment Council of 9 October, which had above all noted the EU’s readiness to update its nationally determined contributions (NDC) by 2020, taking into account the increased collective effort required and the measures taken by all parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement (see EUROPE 12113). The EU’s collective target is to reduce its emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared with 1990.
The draft conclusions are the result of a compromise between France, which chaired the COP21 that concluded the Paris Agreement, and Poland, that is to chair the COP24, where the rules for implementing this universal agreement are to be finalised. Sweden and the Netherlands are nonetheless determined to push for a more ambitious text. Their prime ministers spoke out in this vein on Wednesday when addressing their respective parliaments.
However, there is little likelihood that the “common language” will be changed. If this were the case, “it would be blocked by Poland”, one diplomatic source predicted on Wednesday.
The draft conclusions point out that the EU expects the COP24 will result in “ambitious and comprehensive implementing rules” and that the outcome of the Talanoa dialogue should reflect the level of ambition of all parties for upward review of all NDCs, in line with Article 4 of the Paris Agreement. By this, one should understand the most ambitious level possible for each, given the common but different responsibilities of the parties and their respective capabilities. (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)