The member states are preparing to express their concerns during the second day of the European Council on Friday 29 June about the slow pace of the Brexit negotiations. They also intend to emphasise their determination to make progress by October, the date upon which the EU and the United Kingdom is supposed to reach an agreement on the latter's withdrawal, including the post-Brexit transition period and the framework of future relations.
The provisional conclusions dated Tuesday 26 June insist in this regard on the need for the European Council to examine all possibilities, including there being no deal. Given that fears are palpable amongst diplomats, one senior diplomat explained on Wednesday 27 June that, “Frankly, there has been no progress and there is reason for us to be concerned”.
The EU27 is therefore expected to request that Prime Minister Theresa May, put forward new suggestions as soon as possible on the future relationship with the EU, particularly with regard to resolving the controversy on Ireland. The British leader will also be having meetings with these leaders on Thursday evening, during a dinner at which she will inform them about the most recent developments.
It should be recalled that the prime minister is, in theory, due to present a white paper on the future relationship between the UK and the EU on 9 July. The objective: resolving certain aspects that were left out of the British safety net presented on 7 June (see EUROPE 12036), particularly regulatory aspects and the links in some domains with the single market.
Our source informed us that the EU is hoping to begin “working on this future relationship at the beginning of July”.
On the question of Ireland, this summit will provide an opportunity to reiterate certain fundamental points, namely, without a deal, the United Kingdom will not be able to benefit from a transition period. On Wednesday 27 June, one diplomatic source indicated that without a legally viable safety net, “there will be no withdrawal agreement”.
According to one diplomat, the negotiations on Brexit are not going through “a very constructive phase” and the UK is proposing some “outrageous” things and the EU is simply re-framing the proposals. This same source indicated that some quarters, “suspected that the British were holding the Irish dossier hostage” before qualifying these remarks, “If I were British, I would be asking myself why give in on this point when I am not obtaining anything anywhere else”. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)