The EU is sounding the alarm on a no-deal Brexit, but it is not ready or willing to go through with it.
There are now 66 Brexit “preparedness notices” on the Commission’s website, on everything from the .eu domain name to illegal logging. They are even organised into (12) policy areas, from digital to taxation.
Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said in Dublin this week that the EU “must prepare for every eventuality, including no deal” (see EUROPE 12046). “This is neither a desired nor a likely outcome,” Mr Juncker told a joint sitting of the Irish houses of parliament on Thursday. “But it is not an impossible one. And we are getting ready just in case.”
EU leaders will warn governments and private companies to “step up their work” on preparing for a no-deal Brexit, according to draft conclusions for a summit on 28 and 29 June.
The warning comes last on the list, after language welcoming “further progress” on “parts” of the EU-UK exit treaty and “concern” about the lack of a solution for the Irish border.
Diplomats say the text has been carefully crafted to send a strong message to London, and could even be toughened up.
“The tone will not please the UK,” said one EU diplomat involved in the talks. “The message to the UK is serious: Pull yourselves together.”
The calculation on the EU side is that Brexit hardliners like Jacob Rees-Mogg are all talk and no action.
“Yes, it can happen,” said a senior EU official of a no-deal Brexit, “but I think the likelihood is very limited, because even if Rees-Mogg would become prime minister of the UK, he would not want to push his country off the cliff.”
But reality is definitely hitting, particularly amongst Britain’s closest trading partners - Ireland, the Netherlands and Denmark - who are ramping up preparations for post-Brexit trade.
One diplomat described the UK’s vision for the future relationship as “all about flags and empire” but short on specifics. Private companies are also fed up with the lack of clarity (see EUROPE 12045).
Even European airspace giant Airbus warned of “urgent risks to its business” from a no-deal Brexit, predicting “severe disruption” that may lead it to “reconsider” its UK investments (see other news).
“We have sought to highlight our concerns over the past 12 months, without success,” said Tom Williams, Chief Operating Officer of Airbus Commercial Aircraft. “Far from Project Fear, this is a dawning reality for Airbus. Put simply, a No Deal scenario directly threatens Airbus’ future in the UK.”
EU leaders will also plead for “further clarity” from the UK next week on the future relationship, while preparing themselves for an EU of 27.
According to a paper presented by European Commission Secretary general Martin Selmayr to MEPs last week, the Commission is planning to adapt energy efficiency targets, visa requirements for UK visitors and launch a ‘Connecting Europe’ maritime route to link Ireland directly to the North Sea-Mediterranean corridor.
The list also notes the recently adopted decisions on the splitting of tariff rate quotas with the UK, the relocation of the banking and medicines authorities (EBA and EMA) from London, and car type approval.
These are all moves towards an orderly Brexit, which is still the Commission’s base case scenario.
The no-deal warnings sound like standard pre-summit posturing, an attempt to prod the UK into action. A long-awaited UK customs white paper has still to appear, and will not land before the summit, while Britain's proposal on the Irish backstop is still not enough for the EU.
But brinkmanship is a dangerous game, and both sides are running out of time to play it. (Sarah Collins)