Brussels, 22/09/2006 (Agence Europe) - Turkey today is faced with two major challenges - regional security and anchorage in Europe - “at the very time when the international community no longer controls the Middle East strategic equation and where no-one really knows who controls, and how, the process of European integration”, writes Nicole Gnesotto, who heads the EU Institute of Security Studies in the preface to Chaillot Paper No. 92 by Demal Kirisçi on “Turkey's foreign policy in turbulent times” (a publication that takes account of events until June 2006, the Institute points out). The official at the Institute that has its seat in Paris notes that a sort of “race against the clock now seems to have begun between regional destabilisation underway (…) and Turkey's democratic transformation according to European standards”. Under these conditions, the author of the Chaillot Paper, who is a professor at the University of Bogaziçi in Istanbul, analyses the evolution of Turkish foreign policy, mainly under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Traditionally, Mr Kirisçi explains, “Turkish thinking towards international relations has been deeply influenced by the Hobbesian vision” (derived from the ideas in Thomas Hobbes' Leviathan, 1651, culture characterised by deep mistrust of others), and has mainly placed emphasis on the need to be militarily strong and to be prepared to use military force and make political and economic sacrifices in order to ensure national security (including because of the Kurd problem and the role of the PKK). However, over recent years, Turkey has undergone a “major political and economic transformation” that has brought it much closer to Kantian values (derived from the ideas in Immanuel Kant's Perpetual Peace, 1795) characterised by “cooperation and a general sense of security and stability”. This transformation of Turkey has “major implications in terms of the European integration project in general and in particular with regard to this project's ability to 'export' or expand the zone of stability, peace and prosperity - the zone of 'democratic peace'”, writes the author, who believes that Turkey has become “crucial to the expansion of such a zone not just because of its geographical location but because of the way in which Turkey has evolved as a result”, which could make it a “source of inspiration” for regions otherwise “'long steeped in a Hobbesian culture of anarchy”. For this reason, when one assesses the impact that Turkish membership to the EU would have, “it is paramount that this analysis should also take account of the meaning of Turkey's domestic and foreign policy transformation in the context of the future of Turkey's neighbourhood”, Mr Kirisçi says, admitting that, in Turkey, “there are still circles that are resisting reform”, which could “derail the process”. In recent years, the “the challenge of EU membership was always Turkey's challenge” but this time it is a challenge for Europe, the author states. He goes on to ask: “Will the EU remain engaged in Turkey's membership prospects and instil a sense of confidence among the reformers in Turkey that Europe will indeed be ready to admit the centuries-old 'other' in Europe into its ranks when the accession negotiations are completed?” Mr Kirisçi notes a third challenge, arising from the fact that “Turkey neighbours turbulent regions in turbulent times” (Iran, Iraq, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, democratisation of the Arab and Muslim world, ethnic and bilateral conflicts in the Caucasus, energy supply security and dialogue between civilisations). The EU has succeeded in having an impact on Turkey's “culture of anarchy” and “moving the country out of a Hobbesian world towards a Kantian one”, the author concludes, who considers that, though the process is far from complete, it should be possible to say that “the more Turkey is absorbed into a zone of 'democratic peace' the more it is likely to constitute a source of stability and security as well as prosperity for the very regions that are in turmoil”. He goes on to make the following appeal: “The European Union, Turkey and its region should choose to help consolidate this 'win-win' game before it is too late”. (ISS site: http://www.iss.europa.eu ).