This section never comments on national election results and will not be making an exception for Italy. The choice is made by the people, majorities are won and lost - governments change accordingly: this is normal for democracy, which essentially flows from the domestic policy of each country. Agence EUROPE uses only one evaluation criteria: what are the attitudes to European construction. In Italy popular support for this enterprise has never been lacking, even if it sometimes creates the impression of a sentimental attachment rather than thought-out participation in the disciplines and common efforts required. The government in office over the last five years has not modified this basic direction and Italy has not distanced itself in any spectacular way from the Community spirit or from its generally satisfactory application (with some shortfalls, as is the case almost everywhere) of European rules.
The misunderstood Euro. On this point, however, Silvio Berlusconi has distorted the correct perception of the national interest: the single currency. Accusations against the Euro and its supposed responsibility in increasing the cost of living, ignore the incommensurate advantages that Italy has gained and continues to obtain from participating in the single currency. Without the Euro, Italy would be unable to support the weight of public debt because national interest rates imposed periodic and increasing devaluations that led the country towards bankruptcy. In the current intermediary period between the old and the new government, financial sources (including the “Financial Times”, which has again been echoing them) mooted the possibility of an Italian withdrawal in the long term from the common currency. According to several sources, the real aim of this campaign would be the end of the Euro, the permanent dream of finance in London and New York. I believe that the Italian media and political communities are wrong to give so much importance to the article in the pink pages of the London daily: the Financial Times obviously warrants consideration, on the condition that it is never forgotten that on financial issues, the newspaper is always the tribune of the City. What it writes has to be considered as a warning on the need for Italy to respect the Stability Pact and respect national debt (half of which is in fact owed by Italian citizens).
Other positions taken by Mr Berlusconi on European affairs created a degree of concern. For example, repeated affirmations supporting Russia's accession to the EU (Mr Putin was most astonished) but most protests with regard to Mr Berlusconi had an essentially internal significance, including the problem concerning his conflicts of interest. Certain members of his government demonstrated increasing mastery in European affairs, for example, the European Minister for Foreign Affairs, Gianfranco Fini as Italy's representative at the Convention which elaborated the draft constitutional treaty. Overall, from a European point of view, the last five years represented a waiting period, where traditional national orientations were not reversed (and which were in part observed in other Member States such as the Netherlands and Poland).
Initiatives that speak for themselves. Forecasts for conferring Romano Prodi with the responsibility for forming a new government were confirmed by the President of the Republic Carlo Azeglio Ciampi (whose vigorous support for European construction never wavered) and initiatives from Rome for re-launching European construction appear likely. Mr Prodi has said that he supports the formula of a “hard core” between Member States that want to go forward and he has spoken in favour of maintaining the constitutional treaty in a lighter form in view of a “European referendum” when the time comes (see our bulletin 9174). The Italian Permanent Representative to the EU, Ambassador Rocco Cangelosi, has just produced a hypothesis of a “strong Italian-German initiative” for a general re-launch of the European process of integration. At the same time some informal sources that never ceased to work in a manner that was more or less overt (“Committee of the Ten”, led by Flavio Mondello, written contributions by the former Permanent Representative to Brussels, Piero Calamia in the Affari Esteri publication, etc.) are assuming a much greater profile, with new ideas on ways for following up the re-launch of the Constitution. I'll be coming back to this next week when I take a general overview of recent development in the “reflection” on the future of Europe and a specific look at the constitutional re-launch.
(F.R.)