Brussels, 29/03/2004 (Agence Europe) - On Tuesday, the European Commission published a report on Mid-term Perspectives for Agricultural Markets and Revenues in the EU from 2003 to 2010. The Commission expects 'relatively favourable' changes for cereals, meat and dairy products. It explains that with enlargement of the EU to ten new Member States, the surface area of cultivated land will increase by 30% and production will rise by 10 to 20% for most products.
Cereals: Current EU Member State and accession country production fell to 230 million tonnes in 2003 because of drought, but is expected to rise to 272 million tonnes in 2004. This estimate takes account of 5% of land lying fallow. From the 2005-2006 marketing year onwards, the percentage of land lying fallow will increase to 10%, but this will only apply to most new Member States in 2009. Production in the EU25 will gradually rise to 277 million tonnes in 2010.
Wheat production (including durum wheat) will rise to nearly 139 million tonnes in 2010, from 129 million tonnes in 2004. Wheat production will gently rise from 114.5 million tonnes in 2004-2005 to 118.8 million tonnes in 2010-2011. Exports to non-EU countries should rise from 14.2 million tonnes in 2004-2005 to19.9 million tonnes in 2010-2011. Barley production will fall from 60.3 million tonnes in 2004 to 56.3 million tonnes in 2010. The Commission say that intervention stocks will rise rapidly. Maize production will fall in current Member States, but is expected to rise in the ten new Member States. The Commission is expecting production to hit 52.4 million tonnes in 2004-2005 and 50.1 million tonnes in 2010-2011 and believes the EU25 may need to import maize. Maize consumption is expected to rise from 50.7 million tonnes in 2004-2005 to 52.7 million tonnes in 2010-2011. Rye production will rise in the new mss, particularly for animal feed (from 5.9 million tonnes in 2004 to 7 million tonnes in 2010). The June 2003 decisions regarding reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (excluding rye from the intervention system) will lead to a fall in rye production in the EU15 (from 3.8 to 3.3 million tonnes between 2004 and 2010). A large-scale reduction in intervention stocks is planned in 2003-2004.
Meat: Beef production in the EU25 will remain stable until 2010 (only rising by 8 million tonnes), but pork and poultry production will gain in market share. Pork production will reach 23 million tonnes in 2010 in the EU 25 (including a 15% increase in the new Member States). Poultry production will rise from 10.9 million tonnes in 2004 to 11.9 million tonnes in 2010.
Dairy products: In the first few years following enlargement, butter and skimmed milk powder production will increase in the new Member States, notes the report. In the long term, however, butter production in the enlarged EU will fall (especially in the current Member States). Cheese production in the EU25 will rise by 0.9 million tonnes in 2004 to 9 million tonnes in 2010, thanks to the measures taken in the CAP reform.