Human-induced global warming reached 1.37°C in 2025 compared with pre-industrial levels, according to the Indicators of Global Climate Change, drawn up by 70 international scientists, including several authors from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This is the third-hottest year ever recorded.
The authors presented their report on Thursday 11 June, from Bonn, Germany, where the preparatory meetings for COP31 are currently taking place (see EUROPE 13885/13).
Emissions are not falling. Global greenhouse gas emissions remain at a record level, according to the report. They reached 56.8 billion tonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide equivalent, continuing to rise, although less rapidly than in the 2000s.
Most of these emissions come from the use of fossil fuels, although deforestation, agriculture and industry are also major contributors to emissions.
“These emissions are no longer rapidly increasing, leading to a steady rise in the atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases”, the authors state. The concentration of carbon dioxide increased by 3.8% since 2019, methane by 3.8% and nitrous oxide by 2.2%.
Ecosystems out of balance. “The Earth’s energy imbalance provides a crucial integrative measure of the overall heating of the planet and the pace of climate change (...) has more than doubled in recent decades”, says the report. “Excess heat is being stored in the oceans, cryosphere and land at an accelerated pace”, causing ocean and land warming, ice melt, sea-level rise (23 cm in 2025 since 1901) and permafrost thaw, which releases carbon gases into the atmosphere.
Warming in recent decades has led to record temperatures over land, but also to marine heatwaves. “The number of marine heatwave days more than tripled globally between 1991 and 2025”, the scientists explain.
The symbolic +1.5°C of the Paris Agreement will be reached in 2030. Based on scientific assessments, “if emissions remain at current levels, we can expect to reach +1.5°C around 2030”.
Moreover, the remaining carbon budget is virtually exhausted. The 130 billion tonnes of CO2 remaining at the start of 2026 will be exhausted “within about three years at current CO2 emissions levels”.
To read the report: https://aeur.eu/f/mal (Original version in French by Nadège Delépine)