On Thursday 19 February, the European Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, estimated the future multi-annual European defence budget at around €60 billion.
“For the next period of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), which will begin in 2028 and run until 2035, we want to allocate €130 billion to the space and defence sectors. This means that, for defence, this amount could reach €60 to €70 billion, which is 100 times less than what the Member States would spend”, he explained to the Spanish Parliament. According to him, if Member States’ defence spending is indeed 3.5% of their GDP, they will spend €6,500 billion on defence over the same period.
Asked by the media about US acquisitions by Europeans - which were 60% before 2024, according to the ‘Draghi’ report - Mr Kubilius estimated that this figure was gradually falling to 40%. In his view, Europeans buy from US industry because it can produce what European industry cannot. “We must therefore invest in our industries and develop our industrial capacities in order to produce modern, cost-effective weapons”, he stressed.
The European Commissioner called for the development of Europe’s autonomous defence capabilities. “You can’t talk about autonomous European defence and at the same time say: ‘But we will not invest in our own defence capabilities’. It’s incompatible”, he warned.
While Spain is not expected to meet its NATO spending commitments, Mr Kubilius pointed out that European defence is based on the principle of collective defence. “No EU Member State can defend itself alone (...) If a country does not invest sufficiently in its own defence, it weakens not only its own defence capabilities, but also all collective defence capabilities”, he explained.
According to the Commissioner, Europeans need to make a threefold preparation: a preparation in terms of material capabilities, an institutional preparation with the development of NATO’s European pillar, and a political preparation. “We must have the political will to defend ourselves”, he explained, pointing out that Russia was using “numerous hybrid means” to divide Europeans and “undermine” their ability to defend themselves. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)