Europe’s Foreign Ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday 23 June to discuss issues that have become customary: the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, both in Gaza and in the conflict between Israel and Iran. The Council will also provide an opportunity to prepare for the European Council on 26 and 27 June, which will return to these issues (see EUROPE 13661/33).
Ukraine. The Ministers will first hold talks with their Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha, on the situation in the country at a time when Russia is continuing its air attacks and does not seem willing to negotiate a ceasefire.
The Council is expected to return once again to EU military support, in particular the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs’ initiative to send two million large-calibre munitions to Kyiv this year.
It will also discuss the 18th sanctions package, which could be adopted in the next few days, possibly after the European Council, at which Slovakia would like assurances regarding RepowerEU strategy to phase out imports of Russian fossil fuels as it links the two issues, according to sources.
The package could be cut by the reduction in the oil price cap, as several G7 partners, including the United States, would be reluctant to touch it because of the situation in the Middle East. And while the economic sanctions against Russia are due to be renewed by the end of July, and some were worried about a possible Hungarian veto, several sources said that Budapest had instead sent positive signals that the measures would be renewed. “There are very clear differences of opinion on military support for Ukraine from the United States and the EU, but Trump continues to urge Europe to keep up the pressure on Russia”, said a diplomat to explain Hungary’s position.
The question of Ukraine’s EU accession could also be raised, while Hungary is still blocking the opening of the first cluster of accession chapters.
The Ministers will also discuss the fight against Russia’s hybrid threats.
China. The Ministers will then hold a focused discussion, in camera, on relations between the European Union and China, ahead of the EU-China Summit at the end of July. This will be preceded by a strategic dialogue scheduled for 2 July, according to our information.
In view of these two events, the Ministers meeting in Brussels are expected to focus on China’s role in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and, in particular, the supply of dual-use goods that can be used for both civilian and military applications.
According to several European diplomats, this indirect support, along with Chinese cyber attacks and attempts to manipulate information, represents a major security challenge for Europe.
These points are likely to come up again at the July Summit, as are trade talks, when the EU has taken a tougher line on Chinese practices deemed unfair (see EUROPE 13661/3).
According to one diplomat, this discussion at ministerial level is also an opportunity to reaffirm European values, regardless of the policies of the new American administration.
The EU’s position on China “has not changed because there is a new President in the White House. The EU must defend its own interests”, they explained.
Middle East. After an emergency meeting on Tuesday (see EUROPE 13661/1), the Ministers will again discuss the conflict between Israel and Iran as the United States bombarded three Iranian nuclear sites on Sunday morning. On Tuesday, the High Representative of the Union warned that the involvement of the United States would certainly drag the region into broader conflict, “which is in nobody’s interest”. The Europeans should therefore once again focus on diplomacy and plead for appeasement, while remaining firm on the fact that Iran must not be a nuclear power.
On Friday in Geneva, the E3 Ministers (Germany, France, United Kingdom) and the Ms Kallas met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to call for a return to diplomatic channels and for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme to continue. At the time of going to press, discussions were continuing.
The Council will be preceded by a breakfast, organised by the Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU, with the Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi.
While several sources warned that the conflict between Israel and Iran should not overshadow Gaza, the Ministers will once again discuss the situation in the Palestinian enclave and are expected to call for the distribution of humanitarian aid. Tensions on the West Bank could also be the subject of debate as Hungary continues to block the adoption of sanctions against violent settlers and members of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
The High Representative of the Union is also expected to present to the heads of European diplomacy the review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which they have called for (see EUROPE 13650/16), in the light of compliance with Article 2.
No decision is expected at this Council, and Ministers will be informed by the High Representative of the results of the review. During the review process, the EEAS sent a questionnaire to the Israeli side, which replied on Thursday 19, according to a source.
On Friday, before receiving the 10-page document that was sent to the delegations in the afternoon, just a few hours before a meeting of the Member States’ ambassadors on this subject, one delegation warned that the association agreement was fine as it was and allowed for dialogue with Israel, seeming to close the door on any measures. But according to one diplomat, “if the report goes as far as it can, how many Member States would still be prepared to continue with business as usual? They will have to justify their actions”. “The idea is not to make announcements, but to improve the situation on the ground, so we need a kind of European unity”, said another diplomat.
According to Politico, which has seen the document, the European External Action Service considers that “on the basis of the assessments made by independent international institutions (...), there are indications that Israel is in breach of its obligations” with regard to human rights under Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
Depending on the outcome of the Ministers’ discussions, Mrs Kallas could prepare options/proposals to be presented at the Council meeting on 15 July.
The Ministers could also revisit trade with Israeli settlements, following a request by nine of them to the Commission to review European rules in the light of an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (see EUROPE 13663/21).
The Council will also return to the situation in Libya, where fighting between militias continues and the political process is stalled. It is expected to adopt conclusions on Syria, focusing on a common EU approach, and to sanction five individuals responsible for human rights violations in the country.
It should be noted that due to the situation in the region, the meeting with the Ministers of the Mediterranean countries has been cancelled.
Georgia. The Ministers will also briefly discuss the deteriorating situation in Georgia with the intensification of repression. Mrs Kallas will once again call on the Member States to adopt sanctions. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant and Pauline Denys)