“The outside world is not waiting for us. Nor does it expect endless coalition talks”, said Friedrich Merz as soon as he announced the victory of his CDU/CSU party in the German general election on Sunday. With 28.5% of the vote, the Christian Democratic Party knows that it will have to form a fragile coalition with the Social Democrats and, possibly, the Greens.
The two parties in the outgoing government both suffered crushing defeats, with 16.4% (SPD) and 11.6% (Greens) of the vote respectively. Friedrich Merz confirmed that he has ruled out any government with Germany’s far-right AfD, which has become the second largest force in Germany by winning 20.8% of the vote.
A government in two months?
On the evening of the elections, the future Chancellor promised to get down to work “starting tomorrow” to form a government before Easter, in other words in two months’ time, even though he knows that “it won't be easy”. Talks should begin as soon as the parliamentary groups are formed this week, but the formal negotiations will take place in March. The outgoing Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, announced that he will not be taking part. Lars Klingbeil, the current leader of the SPD and future leader of the parliamentary group, is expected to be Friedrich Merz’s contact to form the future government.
AfD in ambush
In any case, the majority will be very fragile in the face of an AfD that continues to rise. “We have doubled our score since the last election. It's a great result”, stressed its president, Alice Weidel, in front of enthusiastic supporters on Sunday evening. She repeated during the evening that her “hand is extended” to the CDU/CSU to form a “conservative” government.
However, it is clear that the “cordon sanitaire” set up by the CDU/CSU to prevent the far right coming to power will not be broken. The AfD is now counting on the fragility of the future coalition to impose its views. “We won’t have to wait long for new elections”, declared Alice Weidel.
Divergence on immigration
Fundamental disagreements between potential government allies will make the adoption of a government contract all the more difficult. While the CDU/CSU, the SPD and the Greens share a desire to continue supporting Ukraine, their positions differ, for example, on the need to introduce compulsory military service to do so.
Everything separates them on the issue of migration and the closure of borders, whereas the AfD has succeeded in putting this issue at the heart of the German campaign. Negotiations are also likely to be tough on the economic front, just a few months after the debate on calling into question the “debt brake” shattered the previous coalition led by Olaf Scholz.
“The rapid formation of a government can send a strong signal of recovery to the economy and society” hoped Peter Leibinger, President of the BDI, the German industrial federation, on Sunday evening, calling for a “bold recovery programme”. While Germany has entered its third year of recession and almost 3 million people are unemployed, the economy remained in the background throughout the campaign. German industrialists are also calling on the future government to speak “with a strong voice in Europe”. “Germany depends on European unity, common economic power and a competitive EU”, writes Peter Leibinger.
Independence from the United States
At the same time as US President Donald Trump was hailing the AfD's victory on the X network, Friedrich Merz was confirming his intention to work to strengthen Europe. The man who has long been a central pillar of the dialogue with the United States - for ten years he chaired the Atlantik-Brücke (“Atlantic Bridge”) association set up in 1952 - noted on Sunday evening that “interventions from Washington are no less scandalous than those we have seen from Moscow”.
His “absolute priority” will therefore be to “strengthen Europe so that we can really achieve, step by step, our independence from the United States”, he explained on Sunday. He immediately received the support of the French President, Emmanuel Macron, in particular, stating that they are both more determined than ever to work for a strong and sovereign Europe. (Original version in French by Nathalie Steiwer)