On Monday 17 February, the finance ministers of euro area countries will attempt to reach a common understanding of the decisions and announcements of the new US administration, and will reflect on the attitude to adopt in response to the decisions taken on the other side of the Atlantic.
Whether it is the introduction of tariff barriers targeting the EU (see EUROPE 13578/5) or measures designed to attract investment to the United States, the lack of clarity over Washington’s economic and financial policy is a major source of uncertainty. This situation is weighing on the outlook for growth in the euro area, which has lost momentum since autumn 2024.
According to a European source, ministers are expected to discuss “different scenarios” for macroeconomic policy, including a number of parameters, such as the euro-dollar exchange rate. Even if there is cause for concern, it should be remembered that, whatever happens, the euro area will remain “a global economic power” and that it will have to implement its own competitiveness agenda, said this source on Thursday 13 February. According to the source, the message from ministers should therefore be one of “determination and action”.
However, the Eurogroup will not adopt a specific statement on Monday.
Bulgaria. Ministers will also take stock of Bulgaria’s efforts to join the euro area, with the new Bulgarian government’s objective remaining to adopt the single currency at the start of 2026.
In June 2024, in their convergence report, the European Commission and the ECB judged that Bulgaria met three of the four convergence criteria - sound public finances, sustainable convergence of interest rates and exchange rate stability (see EUROPE 13440/18). Progress was still needed in the fight against inflation.
The Eurogroup meeting will not be “decisive”, but it will allow the Commission, the ECB and the Bulgarian authorities to take stock of the situation. In order for Bulgaria to be in a position to bring the single currency into circulation on its territory in January 2026, the EU institutions will have to deliver convincing new convergence reports with a view to a decision by the EU Council in July. Before that, the Bulgarian authorities are expected, in April or May, to have made an official request in April or May for these reports to be drawn up.
Such a request would only make sense if the Bulgarian authorities were certain that the assessment would be positive, said this source.
Recommendation for the euro area. On Monday, the Eurogroup is expected to approve the economic and fiscal policy recommendation for the euro area as a whole, which recommends a slightly contractionary fiscal stance for 2025 and 2026 (see EUROPE 13578/30).
Finally, ministers will adopt their work programme by July 2025. This will include the coordination of national budgetary policies, discussions on banking union and the digital euro project. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)