A report on the budgetary implications for the EU of the accession of all the candidate countries for enlargement, with the exception of Turkey, was submitted to the European Parliament’s Committee on Budgets on Monday 3 February. Researchers from the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris, the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin and the CEPS (Centre for European Policy Studies) were asked to assess the budgetary implications of enlargement with a view to preparing the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).
In addition to the countries of the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia), Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are candidate countries. Kosovo is seeking this status.
What would be the budgetary costs of the accession of the candidate countries? The study estimated these costs according to three different scenarios, depending on the countries concerned and their accession date. The idea that enlargement would entail “exorbitant costs” is disinformation, according to the report.
However, the allocation for Cohesion Policy could be reduced by 24% with enlargement, with the accession of nine poorer countries at the next MFF. The total budget for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) could increase by between 22% and 25% if no ceiling were imposed.
Cohesion Policy. The accession of the six countries of the Western Balkans to the EU by 2030 and that of the nine candidate countries would lead to a “ statistical effect” which would reduce the cohesion envelope of certain current Member States. With the accession of countries with a lower GDP per capita, some regions would no longer be eligible for cohesion policy. The study suggests “providing temporary ‘gradual phasing out’ assistance” to these regions.
In addition, the current ceiling of 2.3% of GDP for national cohesion allocations should be raised to 4% of GDP, otherwise there is a risk that the new Member States will receive less European funding once they join.
CAP. The CAP will have to be adapted to Ukraine’s accession to the “vast agricultural sector”, notably via a gradual transition period or by giving the country less advantageous access to CAP funds. In terms of more radical solutions, the study mentions a general reduction in national CAP allocations or the exclusion of Ukraine from the scheme.
Since “there is every reason to believe that most of the candidate countries will not join the EU before 2034”, according to the study, the question will be to guarantee current levels of pre-accession support for Ukraine and the Western Balkans, and to offer the same support to Moldova and Georgia.
The study supports making the receipt of EU funds conditional on reform efforts undertaken by the beneficiaries. The challenge for the next MFF will be to support the candidate countries in their socio-economic alignment with the EU, according to the study. For Ukraine, for example, researchers claim that this will require additional macroeconomic financial aid and assistance with reconstruction.
Without sufficient pre-accession funds, the candidate countries could “lose their motivation to prepare for membership and national public support for the EU could diminish”, the researchers said.
To see the report: https://aeur.eu/f/fcp (Original version in French by Florent Servia)