The European Union is anxiously awaiting potential announcements from US President Donald Trump on new tariffs that would target it directly. In doing so, it is trying to prepare for the worst.
This issue continued to occupy EU trade and industry ministers, who took part in a session on transatlantic relations at their joint meeting in Warsaw on Tuesday 4 February. Their message was similar to that of European leaders the previous day in Brussels (see EUROPE 13571/3): the EU27 must show unity in their response to possible US measures.
The message from Member States has become more coherent in recent weeks, with a majority of countries now aligning on the need to respond to potential measures, albeit in a proportionate manner. This is also the direction in which the European Commission is heading, after having exercised caution for several months in its various statements.
“We will make it (...) clear that we will always protect our own interests, however and whenever that is needed”, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told EU ambassadors on Tuesday 4 February.
Persuasion. According to a European diplomat, the Commission services are considering tariffs that could affect strategic American economic sectors, pursuing the same logic as in the past.
However, everyone’s hope at the Commission and in the European capitals is that an agreement can be negotiated in the way that Mexico and Canada did, rapidly obtaining a provisional suspension of the American tariffs. According to a number of sources, the EU has several cards to play in the negotiations, and the fact that no announcement has yet been made concerning European products is somewhat reassuring for the Member States.
The EU is continuing its relentless efforts to demonstrate that doing business with the EU is in America’s interest. “European companies in the US employ 3.5 million Americans. And another million American jobs depend directly on trade with Europe. The point is that a lot is at stake for both sides”, Ms von der Leyen reminded the ambassadors.
European Commissioner for Trade Maroš Šefčovič also stressed the magnitude of the benefits for the Americans. In his view, we need to counter the fictional narratives circulating about the imbalance in economic relations.
For the time being, the Commission is still waiting for initial contact with the US administration before entering into discussions.
Several countries, including France, are calling for firmness in future negotiations. “First we need to wait for the US administration’s decisions on tariffs. Then we’ll establish a common position. But entering into discussions by putting concessions on the table, I don’t think that’s the right approach”, French Minister for Industry Marc Ferracci told Agence Europe.
Luxembourgish Minister for Foreign Affairs Xavier Bettel has warned against taking too naive an approach to Donald Trump: “If you are weak, he will eat you. And if you don’t negotiate with him, he’ll kill you”. However, the former Luxembourg prime minister expressed confidence that Europeans and Americans would find common ground in the negotiations.
Strengthen other partnerships. Showing Europe’s strength to the United States also means forging closer ties with other international partners, according to several member countries. Estonian Deputy State Secretary for Economic Affairs Sandra Särav-Tammus believes that the EU must realise that it needs to strengthen its relations. “We also need to do some ‘friendshoring’”, she said.
This was the message that Ms von der Leyen gave to the EU ambassadors as well, appealing to all potential trading partners: “If there are mutual benefits in sight, we are ready to engage with you”.
European Commissioner for Trade Maroš Šefčovič does not see things differently: “I’m committed to bringing new impetus to new negotiations. We are deal makers, this is in our DNA.”
In line with this, the president of the Commission announced that a summit with South Africa would be organised in March, during which the EU hopes to launch discussions on a new type of “clean trade and investment partnership”.
The EU is also due to take part in a second Trade and Technology Council (TTC) with New Delhi on 28 February. Most importantly, the whole College will be travelling to India to “deepen our partnership across the board”, said Ms von der Leyen. (Original version in French by Léa Marchal)