The Foreign Affairs Ministers will be meeting in Brussels on Monday 27 January to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the Middle East, including Syria and Lebanon, and relations with the United States.
Ukraine. The Council will discuss, as every month, the situation in Ukraine. The debate will take place against the backdrop of a new American administration, with the need for Europeans to remember that nothing should be done about Ukraine without Ukraine, and nothing about European security without Europe.
After a speech delivered remotely by their Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha, the Ministers will discuss support for Kyiv, including military support. They are expected to take stock of the Ukrainian defence industry, military equipment, including munitions and air defence, and the training of soldiers (75,000 should have been trained by the EUMAM mission by the end of February). While Poland has put the ‘European Peace Facility’ on the agenda of the first meeting of EU ambassadors under its Presidency of the EU Council, Hungary continues to block disbursement.
The High Representative also wishes to discuss the use of frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine.
The Ministers will also discuss the renewal of economic sanctions against Russia, in force until 31 January. On Friday, at the meeting of the Member States’ ambassadors to the EU, the Hungarian representative was unable to give his country’s approval, as he had not received any instructions from his capital about his position.
Several diplomats were not worried on Friday, pointing out that this was not the first time that Budapest had put off giving its agreement, sometimes by using a compromise approach.
“Hungary has never said that it would block the renewal of sanctions”, said a European source. Budapest initially postponed its decision, awaiting the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, who has come out in favour of measures against Russia. Without wishing to make a link between the non-decision on sanctions and Hungarian demands for approval, one diplomat pointed out that, during the discussion, the Hungarian ambassador had come with a whole series of demands on energy security.
The next package of sanctions - the 16th - should be discussed by the Europeans in the next few days, with the aim of reaching an agreement by the third anniversary of the Russian invasion, on 24 February.
United States. Over lunch, the Council will exchange views on EU-US relations and how the EU can engage and ensure a positive relationship, a week after the inauguration of US President Donald Trump. “We need to explain to the US administration what we have in common, we are allies on many issues in a polarised world, but we can also have a transactional relationship if necessary”, explained one diplomat. “100 pieces of legislation have been passed in the last few days. They need to be analysed”, the diplomat added, pointing out that the impact on the EU was being taken seriously, but that it was important to keep a cool head and that the EU would react firmly if it felt it had to.
The High Representative of the Union has sent the new US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, an invitation to attend a Foreign Affairs Council meeting.
Middle East. The Council will then hold a debate on recent developments in the Middle East, including Syria. The Ministers could reflect on how to work with the new government, on cooperation and on the country’s recovery.
From Turkey, High Representative of the Union Kaja Kallas announced the presentation of a roadmap on Friday 24 January at the Council meeting on easing sanctions, and a step-by-step approach. “If we see things moving in the right direction, we will relax the sanctions. There will also be a reversibility mechanism, depending on the direction taken by the government”, she warned.
According to Mrs Kallas, the EU will begin with the sanctions in areas that are “genuinely necessary to kick-start the reconstruction of the country”.
According to several sources, there is a broad consensus within the Member States to ease the measures, also to allow European operators to participate in the reconstruction of Syria. The aim is to obtain political agreement from the Ministers to lift certain measures, in particular on transport and energy. If some countries also wished to relax measures on finance and the banking system, this would not be unanimously supported, with some Member States concerned about the risk of terrorist financing.
Targeted sanctions against individuals and entities linked to the Assad regime should be maintained, as should those relating to chemical products, captagon and dual-use goods, and the arms embargo. “There will be a political decision on sanctions, but the Syrian sanctions regime is quite complex, with some measures coming from the United Nations and others from the EU. The technical work involved is quite complex. We have been working on this for a month, but things will take time”, a senior European official explained, pointing out that there was also a political conditionality linked to stability and inclusiveness.
The Ministers will also return to the situation in the Middle East, following the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. They may decide to redeploy the EUBAM Rafah mission (see other news). The Council could also discuss the situation in the West Bank as the Israeli army carries out a major operation in the Jenin refugee camp. Preparations for the EU/Israel Association Council, which could be held in February, and the high-level dialogue with the Palestinian Authority, scheduled for March, should also be discussed.
The situation in Lebanon will be discussed, in particular contacts with the new President and the new government and the implementation of the ceasefire agreement reached at the end of November for 60 days, which will end in a few days’ time.
Current affairs. The Council will be briefly turning its attention to Moldova, in particular support for the country in its fight against hybrid threats and the energy situation in Transnistria.
The Ministers will discuss the situation in Georgia and adopt measures to suspend visa liberalisation for diplomats and holders of service passports (see EUROPE 13546/28). They may also discuss restrictive measures against those responsible for violence against peaceful demonstrators, but no decision is expected.
Hybrid threats. Ahead of the Council, the Ministers will meet for a breakfast on hybrid threats with the new Director of the European Union Intelligence and Situation Centre (INTCEN), Daniel Markic. They will then adopt sanctions against three GRU (Russian Main Intelligence Directorate) officers deemed responsible for cyber activities.
Belarus. On the evening of Sunday 26, the day of the presidential election in Belarus, the European Foreign Affairs Ministers will have dinner with the leader of the democratic opposition, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant, with Isalia Stieffatre and Solenn Paulic)