Reacting to the end of the agreement on the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine on Wednesday 1 January, the European Commission and the Member States sought to reassure that the situation was “generally stable”.
“Market fundamentals have remained stable. Demand remains subdued, at around 18% compared to pre-crisis levels, and storage levels are at pre-crisis levels as well”, European Commission spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen assured the press on Monday 6 January.
Following an extraordinary meeting of the Gas Coordination Group on 2 January, the Commission, together with the Member States of central and eastern Europe, concluded in a press release that there were “no security of supply concerns”, thanks to preparatory work and coordination in the region and beyond.
The Commission also reaffirmed that gas supply was ensured by alternative routes, withdrawals from stocks and increased import capacity for liquefied natural gas (LNG) since 2022.
The Commission’s press release also stresses that Europe’s gas infrastructure is flexible and can accommodate gas from outside Russia, in line with the REPowerEU objectives.
Worrying situation in Moldova. However, the situation is worrying for Moldova, particularly the separatist region of Transnistria, whose gas supply has been restricted since 1 January, because Russia believes that Moldova has not met its payment obligations.
The Commission said it was maintaining contact with the Moldovan authorities to avoid shortages, and called on all EU Member States to show solidarity with the country.
A meeting will be held during the week to take stock of the situation and “hear Moldova’s point of view”, as Anna-Kaisa Itkonen pointed out.
Threats from Slovakia. For several months now, the EU has been preparing for the expiry of the contract signed between Ukraine and the Russian giant Gazprom in 2019 to deliver Russian gas to Europe via its territory (see EUROPE 13506/14), and for the impact of this, particularly on the security of supply for eastern European countries.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who visited Moscow on 22 December, warned in a video posted on social media on 2 January that his coalition government would be discussing retaliatory measures against Ukraine, such as the possible cutting off of Ukraine’s electricity supply.
He also called for compensation mechanisms “to replace the loss to public finances of almost €500 million” if the agreement was not renewed. A Slovakian delegation is due to discuss the situation in Brussels on 7 January.
The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, had previously accused the country, via the social network X, of opening “a second energy front” against Ukraine.
Natural gas prices. Following the end of the transit agreement, the price of European natural gas (Dutch TTF reference) rose above €50/megawatt-hour, reaching its highest level since October 2023 (see EUROPE 13531/14). It then fell back slightly to below €48 on 6 January.
This price rise is also linked to the particularly cold weather of recent weeks, which has caused gas stocks to fall at the fastest rate since 2021. These are currently just over 70% full, compared with 85% for the same period in 2024.
In its press release, the Commission nevertheless maintains that storage levels, at 72% (70.33% on 4 January), are slightly higher than the average (69%) it calculates for this time of year, and that it maintains regular monitoring and communication with the Member States and market players. (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)