Since 15 November, wholesale gas prices have reached levels not seen for a year, exceeding €48 per megawatt-hour on the main Dutch futures market (TTF) on 21 November.
The factors observed are a cold winter combined with declining wind energy generation – which reduces renewable supply, compelling the use of gas-fired power stations – and persistent geopolitical tensions linked to the war in Ukraine.
Fall in gas storage levels. These conditions have also led to a fall in gas storage levels in Europe, which are now below 90% of capacity, with almost 7% of total capacity used in the first three weeks of November.
On Saturday 23 November, storage facilities were 87.9% full according to data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory, compared with 95% on 31 October (see EUROPE 13416/14); the region is only at the start of the heating season.
Russian gas company Gazprom’s recent announcement on 16 November that it would halt supplies to Austria has also raised fears of future supply shortages and has tightened markets (see EUROPE 13526/11).
Added to this is the expiry of the agreement for the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine by pipeline at the end of the year (see EUROPE 13506/14).
If a drop in Russian gas imports is combined with rising energy demand, Europe could be forced to import more liquefied natural gas (LNG), which could lead to higher energy prices across the whole of Europe. (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)