On Wednesday 27 November, the members of the European Parliament will vote for the future ‘von der Leyen Commission II’. If they approve the new team by simple majority, it will be able to take up office in early December.
This vote was made possible by the political agreement announced by the Christian-Democrat EPP, Social Democrat S&D and centre-right Renew Europe groups last week (see EUROPE 13528/1). These groups re-elected the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in mid-July and are expected to form a ‘pro-European, pro-Ukraine and pro-of law’ majority of the European Parliament to push forward the European political agenda, which will now focus on the economic competitiveness of the European Union against its American and Chinese rivals.
This agreement, which was made official by a tripartite declaration reiterating the broad priorities of the legislative term, will have the effect of approving the candidacies of the six executive Vice-Presidents and of the European Commissioner designate, Olivér Várhelyi (see EUROPE 13529/7).
As with any compromise, no political party secured 100% of its wish list:
- the EPP group has secured the nomination of some 15 candidates, despite various disappointing performances, and brought pressure to bear to push through the nominations of Italian Conservative Raffaele Fitto and the aforementioned Mr Várhelyi, who has been labelled far-right and is close to the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán. Despite the revolt of Spain’s Partido Popular connected to the recent floods in the region of Valencia, the Christian Democrats accept the nomination of Socialist Teresa Ribera, a minister with close ties to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.
- the S&D approved the nomination of Ms Ribera, who will become the Number 2 of the College with a broad portfolio, to include the ‘Competitive, Fair and Clean’ Transition and Competition. It will have to give up on its pledge to block the nomination of Mr Fitto, a member of the 'Meloni' government, the position of Vice-President of the Commission. This nomination is without precedent in the entire history of the EU institution.
-The Renew Europe approves the nomination of French candidate Stéphane Séjourné, a member of French President Emmanuel Macron’s closest circles, to an important portfolio connected to the Single Market and Industry, whereas keeping Thierry Breton in place would have led to a smaller portfolio for France. The Liberals will also have to turn a blind eye to the nominations of Mr Fitto and Mr Várhelyi; the portfolio of the latter has lost a number of public health dossiers, which have been redistributed to the Belgian Liberal Hadja Lahbib, who will be responsible for Crisis Management and Humanitarian Aid.
All that fuss for nothing, some will say. Between the end of the hearings on 12 November and the examination of these by the competent committees of the EP, a tense psychodrama – or vaudeville comedy – has played out for a week, ultimately ending up with something almost identical to the initial solution tabled by the Commission President. It appears that Ms von der Leyen and her team ultimately had the right idea, striking a point of balance that was acceptable in the political context that emerged after the European election of June.
The score attained by the 'von der Leyen II' Commission will determine whether the future College will secure more votes than when Ms von der Leyen was re-elected with the absolute majority of 401 votes (see EUROPE 13456/1). Getting a lower score would constitute rejection.
This episode will not be without its consequences for the hemicycle. The European Parliament will not emerge unscathed from this marathon series of hearings, fully covered by Agence Europe as it does every five years. For the first time since 1999, the members of the European Parliament approved all European Commissioners designate without rejecting any of them, either over questions of conflicts of interest or because any of the hopefuls proved unable to demonstrate his or her motivation, independence or European vision.
It is by no means set in stone that the Parliament needs to flex its muscles every five years by eliminating candidates from the race. However, a number of performances were disappointing, most notably during the first week, and the MEPs were able to overlook these. Instead of taking part in a process that is genuinely based on the merit of each application, power games, together with the constructive actions of the European Conservatives towards candidates from pro-European majority parties, led to the approval of at least seven candidacies as a single package.
Over at the EP, the EPP group, chaired by German MEP Manfred Weber, looks like it emerged as the winner from these negotiations carried out behind closed doors. Being the group without which no majority can be formed, it has the leeway to build the majorities that will best serve its own interests, “by default” with the pro-European majority, a negotiator of the tripartite declaration dares to hope, or with the Conservatives and far right. It should be noted that this tripartite declaration is not of a binding nature.
We can expect a certain shift to the right of the positions of the EPP on social and migration issues as well as an in-depth examination of European environmental and social standards that might hamper economic competitiveness. Additionally, efforts towards improvements of the institutional functioning of the EU might be shelved, along with certain decisions made unanimously by the member states of the Council the EU. On budgetary matters, the Christian Democrats are expected to remain cautious about the necessary increase of resources, by means of further shared indebtedness, to tackle the numerous challenges facing the EU.
Among the Social Democrats, the number one priority for the president, Iratxe García Pérez of Spain, was for Ms Ribera to become a European Commissioner, while the Spanish opposition tried to import internal tensions to the European level. However, several national delegations – the Italians, French and even the Germans, soon to be entering an election campaign of their own – will struggle to swallow the 'Fitto' and 'Várehlyi' pills. Did García Pérez cave in too quickly to pressure from Pedro Sánchez to sacrifice various principles close to the hearts of the Socialists in return for achieving her principal objective?
As for the Liberals, Mr Séjourné’s candidacy has been secured. The president of the group, Valérie Hayer of France, interceded personally to try to smoothe the tempestuous relationship between Ms García Pérez and Mr Weber. It is, however, by no means certain that this ménage à trois will survive long-term, as the Christian Democrats are flirting dangerously with the sovereignists, in some cases even with nationalists.
Last but not least is the Greens/EFA group, which has been roundly ignored by the other three. By voting for Ms von der Leyen, the Greens/EFA gave her the votes she needed to be re-elected. The president of the ECR group, Italy’s Nicola Procaccini, then did not hesitate to state that the 'Spitzenkandidat' of the EPP had been “saved by the [European] Greens”. This time, the reverse is happening: the European Conservatives are expected to fill the anticipated defections of the Greens/EFA group(*) and of the national delegations of the pro-European groups. Furthermore, the nomination two days before the Parliamentary vote of the former co-president of the Green group, Belgian’s Philippe Lamberts, as Ms von der Leyen’s ‘transition’ advisor, looks like a consolation prize aiming to convince a few Green members to vote for the College (see EUROPE 13531/22).
Maybe this was not the best way for the progressive and centre-right groups to ensure that the Christian Democrat family, emboldened by its election results of June and its domination of the European Council, listens to reason?
The launch of the 2024 European Parliament and a number of decisions made since July – the EP’s position on Venezuela, the holding of hearings to confirm the Commissioners designate, revision of the ‘anti-deforestation’ regulation – show that the EPP group feels strong enough to go it alone. This position, however, runs counter to the efforts to seek a stable pro-European majority at the centre of the political chess board. If the aim was to force the EPP group to choose a pro-European majority, the Socialists and Liberals could have ‘pulled the plug’ by rejecting a Commission featuring Mr Fitto promoted to Vice-President, even if this had meant delaying the entry into service of the College.
Would the EPP group take the risk of scuppering the pro-European majority by approving the future College with support of the Conservatives and far right? It reasonable to doubt this, as Mr Weber claims that he remains bound by the manifesto of the EPP adopted at the Bucharest Congress.
Instead of entering into a risky stand-off, albeit one with potential regenerative properties, the S&D and Renew Europe groups seem more inclined to accept the Commission that was approved with the support of European Conservatives. This political signal would seem to contradict the stated ambition to govern the hemicycle from the centre and marks the start of a 10th parliamentary legislature built on shaky foundations.
(*) On Monday evening, the Greens decided to support the College by a narrow majority, according to its co-chair, Dutchman Bas Eickhout.
Mathieu Bion