On Tuesday 22 October, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, issued a statement on behalf of the EU denouncing “unprecedented malicious interference by Russia”, promising that the Union would continue to support Moldova’s resilience in the face of an unprecedented hybrid attack, both in terms of disinformation and corruption, with the possible buying of 300,000 votes, or 20% of those who went to the polls on Sunday (see EUROPE 13508/1).
Already on Monday, in a statement with the European Commission, Mr Borrell had explained that the EU was determined to continue to “strengthen the country’s resilience, particularly on the road to EU membership”.
Earlier in the day, the head of the European Parliament delegation to the international election observation mission, Michael Gahler (EPP, German), had laid out his case with Agence Europe in Chișinău for the Europeans to be more proactive in strengthening their strategy. “As the EU, as a community of democracies, we must become much more offensive. We must not just react, but develop our own strategy to strengthen the resilience of our populations”, he explained. “It’s not just Moldova, it’s even stable democracies in the centre of Europe that are exposed to these activities and where a certain part of the population is inclined to believe”, he added, noting that Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) was “a real challenge”.
While, according to several experts we met in Chișinău, the country has improved its resilience, there still seems to be a long way to go. A few hours before the election results, Iulian Groza, Executive Director of IPRE (Institute for European Policies and Reforms), admitted to a group of journalists, including Agence Europe, that “we are stronger, but still vulnerable”. “The challenges are extraordinary. I think we all need to think and act more effectively to increase our resilience and deal with Russian hybrid warfare”, he added on Monday during an EPC webinar. Several sources felt that Moldova was a sandbox and a test case for Russian hybrid warfare before it moves on to other countries.
“Russia will not stop, whatever the result of the referendum. They have no limits unless they are stopped”, warned Mr Groza.
This view is shared by Ionela Ciolan, Research Fellow at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. “We are likely to see a lot of disinformation from the Russians in the future. They will continue with the same intensity to try to polarise society, because their objective is to ensure that the pro-Russians win the majority of votes in the parliamentary elections” in 2025, she warned the EPC, calling for support for the democratic electoral process ahead of this ballot.
Russian methods are becoming increasingly sophisticated, the messages increasingly elaborate and the tools used to wage this hybrid war increasingly consistent.
“The Russian approach and strategy is so sophisticated that we have observed that the Russians have targeted the pro-European regions of the country and, in the end, the result is negative” in the referendum in these regions, explained Mr Groza. For example, the region of Ungheni, on the border with Romania, voted 56.75% against the referendum. Minorities, more rural or less educated people and Russian speakers are also prime targets for FIMI.
EU support for resilience. In addition to the sanctions adopted against 16 individuals and 2 entities responsible for actions that undermine or threaten the sovereignty and independence of the Republic of Moldova, as well as the country’s democracy, stability and security (see EUROPE 13503/3), the EU, through the European Peace Facility and its EU Partnership Mission (EUPM), is providing practical assistance to the country to strengthen its resilience.
The EUPM civilian mission, set up at the request of the Moldovan authorities in May 2023, aims to strengthen crisis management capabilities and improve Moldova’s resilience against hybrid threats. This non-executive mission provides advice, expertise, training and equipment to the Moldovan authorities.
Last year, with the help of the EU, Moldova set up the Centre for Strategic Communication and the Fight against Disinformation. To combat FIMI and build resilience, Moldova’s strategy is based on four pillars: raising awareness, exposing the intention - the modus operandi -, carrying out the necessary investigations and communicating strategically on the national interest.
Some sources stress that Moldova must also be more active in educating the population to deal with disinformation and foreign interference, and in promoting EU action in the country. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with Léa Marchal)