After Malta and Denmark at the end of September (see EUROPE 13489/22), and Poland and Greece at the beginning of October (see EUROPE 13501/26), Portugal, Finland, Estonia and Sweden have now presented their multiannual budget programmes, which in all four cases will run for four years, from 2025 to 2028.
Portugal. The Portuguese authorities are forecasting moderate growth in net public expenditure: 5.0% in 2025, 5.1% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, and 3.3% in 2028 (i.e. an average of 3.6% over the 2025-2028 period).
This trajectory should keep Portuguese public finances in the black, with a budget surplus anticipated over the duration of the multiannual programme: 0.3% of GDP in 2025, 0.1% in 2026, 1.1% in 2027, and 1.3% in 2028. Thanks to this fiscal policy and growth of close to 2% of GDP for four years, Portugal’s public debt could be reduced significantly, from 93.3% of GDP in 2025 to 83.2% in 2028.
Finland. The Finnish authorities are forecasting low growth in net budget expenditure: 1.6% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.6% in 2027 and 2028.
This trajectory should make it possible to contain the public deficit so that it falls back below the Maastricht threshold in 2025 (2.9% of GDP) and is gradually reduced to 0.9% of GDP in 2028. Public debt is expected to rise slightly, to 81.7% of GDP in 2024, 83.9% in 2026 and 82.9% in 2028.
Estonia. The Estonian authorities are planning a gradual reduction in their net budget expenditure: 7.1% in 2025, 5.1% in 2026, 3.6% in 2027 and 3.2% in 2028 (i.e. 4.7% on average).
This trajectory should reduce the public deficit from close to 3% of GDP in 2024 and 2025 to 2.1% in 2028. Although low, Estonia’s public debt is set to increase steadily, rising from 25.2% of national GDP in 2025 to 28.7% in 2028, despite estimated growth of close to 2% of GDP over the period 2025-2028.
Sweden. The Swedish authorities expect the following growth in net public expenditure: 4.0% in 2025, 4.4% in 2026 and 2027 and 4.6% in 2028.
The public deficit would increase slightly, gradually rising from 1.5% of GDP in 2025 to 2.2% in 2028. The same applies to public debt, which is set to rise from 33.3% of Swedish GDP in 2025 to 36.2% in 2028.
To see the medium-term fiscal-structural plans submitted by the Member States, go to https://aeur.eu/f/djs (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)