In a new report, the CAN Europe network of environmental NGOs unveiled a new energy scenario on Thursday 26 September, showing that the EU can achieve climate neutrality by 2040 and be in line with the Paris Agreement climate target.
At a launch event on 26 September, Sven Giegold, Germany’s State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection, explained that “only by focusing on the development of renewable energies and the expansion of the grid can we pave the way for a competitive and sustainable European economy and industry”.
This ‘Paris Agreement-Compatible (PAC) 2.0 scenario’, funded by the German Ministry, is effectively guided by a target of 100% renewable energy in the European energy system by 2040, as well as at least a 65% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels) and carbon neutrality by 2040.
These targets are more ambitious than those put forward by the European Commission in its communication on the 2040 climate target, which envisages a 90% reduction in emissions by 2040 (see EUROPE 13344/1).
“Reaching neutrality 10 years earlier, by 2040, prevents a total emissions of 16.5 Gt CO2e, which represents a 37.5% decrease in emissions compared to a less ambitious 2050 scenario”, the report states.
118 GW of renewables every year by 2040. What’s more, the cost of the transition would be lower, according to the figures put forward: achieving climate neutrality by 2040 would entail total gross investment requirements of €28.9 trillion, “or €4.3 trillion less” than achieving the EU’s 2050 energy scenario, explained Dimitris Tsekeris, author of the study and project leader for CAN Europe.
Based on a reduction in consumption (of 51.3% in primary energy by 2040 compared with the 2020 PRIMES EU projections), the scenario targets several key sectors, in particular the electricity system, buildings, industry and transport.
It calls, among other things, for an acceleration in the deployment of renewable energies, to reach up to 118 GW each year by 2040, a tripling of the annual rate of renovation of buildings by 3% by 2030, and for every new vehicle to be electric by 2030.
In addition, the scenario includes significant development of electricity grids, increased energy storage, demand-side flexibility and improved system flexibility.
Mr Giegold recalled that Germany and France had jointly called on the European Commission to strengthen all flexibility measures in the energy sector.
Paula Rey Garcia, Deputy Head of Unit at the European Commission’s DG Energy, told a panel on renewable energies that it was indeed necessary to exploit the flexibility of the system “if we want to continue to phase out fossil fuels”.
While the scenario does include the role of hydrogen (produced solely by electrolysis using renewable electricity), the report does not envisage the continuation of nuclear power, which is deemed “dangerous and uneconomical”, and even suggests a definitive phase-out of nuclear power by 2040.
To see the report: https://aeur.eu/f/dlp (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)