The European ministers of foreign affairs will meet in Luxembourg on Monday 24 June for a particularly busy EU Council meeting.
Ukraine. The ministers will first have their traditional exchange with their Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba. They are expected to discuss the situation on the ground and welcome the adoption of the 14th sanctions package – which covers liquefied natural gas in particular – which should take place by written procedure in parallel with the EU Council (see EUROPE 13436/4).
The High Representative could also announce an agreement on the transfer of part of the windfall profits from frozen Russian assets to the European Peace Facility (EPF). This would amount to €1.4 billion.
Conversely, no breakthrough is expected from Hungary on the adoption of measures linked to the EPF and the Ukraine Assistance Facility. According to several sources, the matter will be referred to the European Council.
The security arrangement between the EU and Ukraine, whose negotiations have been finalised, according to Ukraine, is also expected to be discussed (see EUROPE 13435/18). Subject to the agreement of the Member States, the arrangement should be signed next week, in the presence of the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky.
There could also be a follow up on the Peace Conference of 15 and 16 June (see EUROPE 13433/21).
In addition, the EU Council might also welcome the holding on Tuesday 25 June of the first intergovernmental conference on the accession of Ukraine – and also Moldova – following the agreement ratified by the Ecofin Council of Friday 21 June.
Middle East. The EU Council will then look at the situation in the Middle East, both the situation in Gaza and the escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. On Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that “no place” in Israel would be spared in the event of an attack on Lebanon, the day after Israel announced that it had validated “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon”. Hezbollah has also threatened Cyprus if the country opens its airports and bases to Israel. Cyprus, for its part, fears a massive influx of Lebanese in the event of conflict.
The EU Council could come back on the question of how to support US President Joe Biden’s plan, which promotes a ceasefire and the release of the hostages.
On 16 June, Israel announced a daily pause in its operations in order to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid between the Kerem Shalom crossing in the south of the Gaza Strip and the European Hospital north of Rafah (see EUROPE 13433/29). The delivery of aid by sea has been suspended several times, mainly due to unfavourable weather conditions. In addition, deliveries by the World Food Programme have been halted since 10 June, pending improved security conditions.
For its part, the Israeli army has on several occasions denounced the infiltration of humanitarian or civilian infrastructures by terrorist fighters.
The ministers are due to be briefed by the High Representative of the Union on the possibility of redeploying the EUBAM Rafah mission, following several on-site study visits. According to a senior European official, a redeployment would be logistically possible in a few weeks’ time, but the political conditions have to be met.
The heads of European diplomacy could also revisit the organisation of an Association Council with Israel. Although Hungary has announced that it has reached an agreement with Israel for an EU Council meeting in the second half of the year, it is up to the High Representative to organise it. The latter received a reply from Israel, via its ambassador to the EU, saying it was ready to discuss a date and the subjects to be addressed. The Hebrew State has agreed to discuss bilateral relations, not Israeli-Palestinian relations. Another difficulty will be finding a common position among the Member States on the content of the EU Council, some of whom do not want it to be a “business as usual” EU Council, while others are concerned that the meeting will become a tribunal for Israel.
The EU Council will also discuss how to support the Palestinian Authority and UNRWA, including financially, and new additional sanctions against Hamas and violent settlers. The measures against Hamas – 8 or 9 people, according to one source, could be adopted later in the week.
Western Balkans. After an internal discussion, the European ministers will hold talks with their counterparts from the Western Balkans over lunch. The foreign ministers of Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro and Albania will be present.
According to a senior European official, however, the limited duration of the lunch will not allow the ministers to enter into detailed discussions relating to the accession process.
The exchange is expected to focus mainly on common foreign and security policy challenges for the coming years and on the further integration of the Western Balkans into the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy.
Furthermore, at the beginning of May, the EU Council gave the final go-ahead for the implementation of the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, which should provide up to €2 billion in grants and €4 billion in loans between now and 2027 (see EUROPE 13384/4).
Georgia. The EU Council will discuss the situation in Georgia, which is moving away from the EU with the adoption of the Transparency of Foreign Influence Law and the proposed anti-LGBTI laws. It will examine the responses that the EU can provide, but no decisions will be taken at the EU Council.
According to European sources, the suspension of high-level meetings and increased funding for NGOs are being considered. If the situation were to deteriorate even further, the suspension of visas and sanctions against members of the Georgian Dream party could be envisaged, but there is no unanimity at this stage. According to one diplomat, the aim is to make the Georgian Dream understand the message without punishing the population.
Great Lakes region. The ministers will hold a debate on the African Great Lakes region, in the light of the EU Great Lakes Strategy adopted in 2023 (see EUROPE 13125/7). In February 2023, the EU approved this new strategy aimed at tackling the root causes of instability in this strategic region, covering security, humanitarian aid, development aid, trade and support for multilateralism against the backdrop of the UN’s 2030 Agenda and its sustainable development goals.
The discussion is also expected to cover the appointment of the new EU Special Envoy for the Great Lakes. According to African media reports, Rwanda has blocked the appointment of a Belgian diplomat to this post. Several European sources have condemned the fact that the EEAS is said to have allowed a third country to intervene in a sovereign EU decision. “We need a decision as quickly as possible, because the situation is deteriorating”, stressed one diplomat.
The situation in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (see EUROPE 13436/43) is due to be discussed on Monday.
Tunisia. At the request of the High Representative of the Union, the ministers are due to examine the deteriorating human rights situation in Tunisia, with arrests of members of civil society and the expulsion of migrants. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant, Isalia Stieffatre and Renaud Denuit)