The European elections of 6 to 9 June, marked by a surge of the far-right in several countries, caused a political earthquake in France, without upsetting the major political balances within the Strasbourg hemicycle.
Estimates on Monday 10 June confirmed a rise for the nationalist and radical right in Italy, France, Germany, Austria, Greece and the Netherlands and a crushing setback for the leaders of the EU’s two biggest powers, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, who announced a dissolution of the French National Assembly.
The centrist ‘grand coalition’ of the right (EPP), social democrats (S&D) and centrists (Renew Europe), within which a number of compromises are forged, is likely to retain a majority.
The latest projections from 10 June (4.20pm) show that the EPP won 186 seats (+10 compared to the outgoing European Parliament), the S&D group 135 (-4) and Renew Europe 79 (-23), i.e. 400 seats out of the 720 in the European Parliament. The Greens/EFA group lost 19 seats (total of 53). The ECR group has 73 seats (+4), ID 58 (+9) and The Left 36 seats (-1).
In Germany, the far-right AfD is credited with second place (15 MEPs in the NI group) with 16% of the vote, behind the conservatives CDU-CSU (29 seats), far ahead of the governing coalition parties, the Social Democrats (14 seats) and the Greens (12 seats).
In Austria, the FPÖ emerged victorious (6 seats in the European Parliament), while the Dutch gave a significant boost to Geert Wilders’ far-right party (6 seats in the European Parliament).
In Poland, Donald Tusk’s centrist pro-European party (21 seats in the European Parliament) came in ahead of the populist nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS), but the latter still has a high score (20 seats) and the far-right Konfederacja will send six MEPs.
The far right remains divided into two groups in the European Parliament (ID and ECR), whose rapprochement remains highly uncertain due to their major differences, particularly on Russia. There are also gains for certain forces among the Non-attached Members (NI), such as the AfD and the Fidesz party of Hungarian nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, which came in first place (10 seats), but is down from 2019. Seven EPP seats are planned for the Hungarian representatives of TISZA.
To see the latest estimates: https://aeur.eu/f/CL2 (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)