Support Ursula von der Leyen’s candidacy for the presidency of the European Commission, yes, but on condition that her election does not depend on Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party and her conservative Fratelli d'Italia party... No sooner had the ballots been counted than the German parties began negotiations on Sunday 9 June, with this ultimatum from the Greens and the Social Democrats (SPD) to the big winner of the European elections in Germany, the CDU/CSU.
The debate is all the more tense because the far-right party Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) has become the second largest party in the country and the largest in eastern Germany. With 15.9% of the national vote, the AfD has won 15 seats in the European Parliament, six more than in 2019. In three of the regions of former East Germany, where several regional elections will be held this autumn, the far right won up to 29% of the vote.
Despite this setback, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has decided to keep his coalition government in place, unlike in France.
Fratelli d'Italia, a ‘no go’ for the SPD
The leaders are the German conservatives, who won 29 seats in the EPP group after winning 30% of the vote, mainly in western Germany. Within the European Parliament, however, they will have to form alliances to obtain a ‘pro-European, pro-Ukraine and pro-Rule of Law’ political majority, including among their German rivals.
The head of the Social Democrats’ (SPD) list, Katarina Barley, has already warned that “those who intend to rely on Fratelli d'Italia will not be able to count on the democratic parliamentary groups at the same time”. The SPD is not really in a position to negotiate, having been crushed by a penalty vote against Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who posed on election posters alongside Katarina Barley: the SPD has suffered its worst ever result, with 13.9% of the vote and 14 seats, two fewer than in 2019.
The CDU/CSU doubts the Greens’ reliability
The Greens are also trying to up the ante, despite an electoral debacle that saw them drop to 11.9% of the vote, or 12 seats, 9 fewer than in the previous legislature. In 2019, the Greens did not endorse Ursula von der Leyen. They also rejected the first drafts of the ‘European Green Deal and the ‘Migration and Asylum’ package, which were deemed too unambitious.
This time, “those who want to defend democracy must come out of the woodwork” warned the current leader of the CDU/CSU group in the European Parliament, Daniel Caspary.
However, as early as Monday, the Greens were showing signs of goodwill, suggesting that negotiations were possible if they also covered the content of the programme. Negotiations with the CDU are shaping up to be difficult, with its Chair, Friedrich Merz, calling for a “change of course on immigration and economic policy” when the ‘Green Deal ‘ is implemented. Daniel Caspary has also made it known in the press that he doubts the reliability of the Greens in a coalition.
The virulent Liberal (FDP) list leader Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann also put her five votes (with 5.2% of the ballot) in the balance, on condition that the President of the Commission is not elected with “right-wing radicals”. “This will be the measure, from a democratic point of view, of whether Ms von der Leyen has a real future in Europe”, she explained.
Geopolitical differences between the extremes
This new formation in Germany, which, with 96 seats, has the largest number of MEPs among the Member States, will further increase the “fluidity of majorities, especially as there is less voting discipline in the European Parliament than in the Bundestag”, pointed out Daniela Schwarzer, President of the Bertelsmann Foundation (close to the CDU), during a debate organised by the North Rhine-Westphalia region on the morning of Monday 10 June.
She is also expecting major movements to the left of the hemicycle, with the arrival of the new party of the German left founded by Sahra Wagenknecht, the BSW, which won six seats with 6.2% of the vote, at the expense of her former party, Die Linke. Heir to the East and West German Communist parties, it virtually disappeared from the German political scene with 2.7% of the vote.
On both the far right and the far left, alliances between European parties and the AfD or BSW will be difficult, Daniela Schwarzer points out, given the divergent geopolitical views on Russia and the Atlantic Alliance, as well as on economic policies. The line that the AfD will adopt remains all the more unclear as its leader, Maximilian Krah, suspected of collusion with Russia, has been ousted from the future delegation (see other news).
In addition to a turnout of 64%, the European elections in Germany nevertheless give German Europhiles cause for hope. The transnational pro-European Volt party won three seats, thanks in particular to young people, where in Germany the voting age for the European elections starts at 16 years of age. (Original version in French by Nathalie Steiwer)