On Thursday 14 and Friday 15 December, European leaders will attempt to reach a compromise on opening negotiations with Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia-Herzegovina and on granting candidate status to Georgia.
According to draft European Council conclusions dated 12 December and seen by EUROPE, the leaders could decide “ to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and with the Republic of Moldova” and invite the EU Council to adopt the frameworks for accession negotiations “once the measures set out in the Council conclusions of 12 December 2023 are taken” (see EUROPE 13312/1).
On 8 November (see EUROPE 13288/1), the Commission proposed opening accession negotiations unconditionally before the end of the year, and adopting the negotiating frameworks in March 2024, provided the criteria were met.
Addressing the European Parliament on Wednesday 13 December, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, reiterated that Kyiv was making “great strides towards adopting the reforms that will take it” into the EU. Since 8 November, Ukraine has continued to work on the reforms that still need to be completed, including a law on national minorities to meet the remaining recommendations of the Venice Commission. While the situation of minorities is one of the arguments used by Hungary to block the process, this does not seem to be enough.
During a debate in the Hungarian Parliament, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said that it was not the right time for Ukraine to join the EU, explaining that “a rapid accession of Ukraine to the EU could have unpredictable consequences for the interests of Hungary and the EU”.
If, according to a source at the Elysée Palace, the 26 other EU Member States are in favour of opening negotiations, according to a European source, other Member States, including Austria and Italy, have doubts about Ukraine’s membership.
Several diplomats said it was important to send a political signal to Ukraine. “It’s a question of finding a text that satisfies Ukraine”, explained one of them, pointing out that the unanimity of the Member States was required. The process of opening negotiations should take place in two stages: the political decision to open negotiations, followed by the adoption of the negotiating frameworks and the first intergovernmental conferences.
According to the draft conclusions, the European Council could decide to grant candidate country status to Georgia, “on the understanding that the steps set out in the Council conclusions of 12 December 2023 are taken”. Of the twelve priorities identified in June 2022, only three have been fully met.
Doubts about Bosnia-Herzegovina
The leaders of the EU27 will also address the issue of the countries of the Western Balkans. Some Member States may be reluctant to give Ukraine the green light if “no step is taken” for the Western Balkans, according to a diplomatic source.
Part of the discussions will focus on Bosnia-Herzegovina. According to the European Council’s draft conclusions of 12 December, the Member States could adopt the European Commission’s recommendations of 8 November (see EUROPE 13288/2), indicating that accession negotiations with Sarajevo could begin as soon “once the necessary degree of compliance with the membership criteria” is achieved.
The wording of this condition could be discussed and negotiated, with some Member States wishing to add nuances to the original wording. On the other hand, “some Member States are saying that the same type of formula is needed”, said a diplomatic source. Other Member States could also call for this discussion to be postponed until March.
“If Bosnia has done nothing, we should encourage it to do more. We did it last time, and they did very little to respond to the 14 priorities identified. Why do it again without being certain that they will keep their promises?”, questioned another diplomatic source, adding that there was nevertheless “broad” agreement on the issue between the EU27.
The other countries of the Western Balkans will also be discussed as the leaders of the EU27 welcomed their six counterparts from the region on Wednesday 13 December for an EU/Balkans summit (see other news).
Thus, according to the draft conclusions of the European Council, the Member States could state that they are ready to “complete the opening phase of accession negotiations with North Macedonia as soon as it has implemented its commitment to complete the constitutional changes as referred to in the Council conclusions of 18 July 2022”.
The summit will also be an opportunity for the leaders to discuss the new growth plan for the Western Balkans, presented by Ursula von der Leyen on 16 October (see EUROPE 13272/16, 13282/2).
While many voices have been raised in recent months to stress the importance of the EU also carrying out internal reforms to prepare for the arrival of new Member States, this point will not be addressed at the summit.
“The European Council will address internal reforms at its upcoming meetings with a view to adopting by summer 2024 conclusions on a roadmap for future work”, the draft conclusions state.
To see the draft conclusions: https://aeur.eu/f/a4b (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant and Thomas Mangin)