The leaders of some forty European countries will meet in Granada on Thursday 5 October for the third European Political Community, which follows two previous meetings in Prague in October 2022 (see EUROPE 13037/1) and in Chisinau in June 2023 (see EUROPE 13192/1).
After an inaugural plenary session, the leaders will be divided into several round tables: one will focus on digitalisation and artificial intelligence, another on energy, the environment and climate transition, and the other two will be devoted to European political autonomy.
On Tuesday 3 October, a source from the Élysée Palace recalled the three objectives of the EPC: to design a greater Europe that goes beyond the existing and traditional institutional frameworks; to promote an agenda for peace and security, based in particular on energy, connections, infrastructure, mobility and security; and to bring together European leaders engaged in direct dialogue on an equal footing and without filters.
According to this source, beyond the broad concepts, a number of concrete results are possible. First of all, the leaders should work on extending the future European cyber-reserve to the countries of the European Political Community. “It will be a question of detailing the roadmap and, in particular, the funding arrangements for this extension and to signal the support of a number of States that have volunteered to be more active in the process of extending this cyber-reserve”, this source explained. According to this source, the leaders are also expected to discuss the extension of the European ‘DiscoverEU’ programme and access to museums and national monuments for young people from EPC countries.
No Aliev-Pashinyan meeting
In the margins of the European Political Community, the leaders will hold bilateral and multilateral meetings. A meeting between the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliev, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, and the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, to try to move forward discussions between the two countries of the Caucasus, had been announced, but this now seems to be off the agenda.
On Wednesday 4 October, Azerbaijani sources told the media that Mr Aliyev would not be travelling to Granada and that he refused to take part in a meeting with Mr Pashinyan. The reason was the “anti-Azerbaijani atmosphere that developed” after Baku’s victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, including pro-Armenian statements by the French authorities, an Azerbaijani official told AFP .
More than 100,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh have fled to Armenia and Yerevan fears for its territorial integrity.
Mr Pashinyan, who will be travelling to Spain, said it was a “shame” that the meeting will not take place. On Tuesday 3 October, senior European officials and sources at the Elysée Palace were still hopeful that the meeting would take place, stating that contacts were underway to determine the format.
In addition, tensions between Serbia and Kosovo “could be discussed” on the margins of the EPC, according to a senior European official. While dialogue on the normalisation of relations is usually held between the Serbian President, Aleksandar Vučić, and the Kosovan Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, it is the President of Kosovo, Vjosa Osmani, who will represent her country at the EPC. Ms Osmani and Mr Vučić had met in June in Chisinau.
Serbia took a step towards appeasement on 3 October when it arrested Milan Radoicic, a Kosovo Serb politician accused of taking part in the armed attack in Kosovo on 24 September that killed a Kosovar policeman.
Discussing the future of an EU of more than thirty members, with EU27
In the wake of the European Political Community, the leaders of the EU Member States will meet in an informal format to discuss both the “most pressing issues” facing the EU and to begin an “important reflection process on our Union’s future priorities”, according to the invitation letter from the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.
“Starting in Granada, our discussions will allow us to collectively chart the course for the Union, defining its direction and goals for the years to come. The result of our reflection process in the next few months will shape the 2024-2029 Strategic Agenda”, he added. A declaration on the EU’s new strategic agenda is due to be adopted at this informal summit.
At their meeting, the EU heads of state or government will discuss the EU’s strategic autonomy, with a view to drawing up the broad policy lines in the short, medium and long term to promote the Union’s competitiveness and sovereignty. This discussion is the result of the Versailles Declaration, adopted on 11 March 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine (see EUROPE 12907/1).
Since that first exchange between European leaders, measures have been taken at EU level to reduce dependency, particularly on energy, but also to promote European defence and industrial policy.
The aim of this new discussion in Granada is therefore to “take stock of the Versailles agenda”, according to one European diplomat, and to draw up a list of priorities to be undertaken between now and the end of the political cycle, which will end with the next European elections.
Then there is the question of defining the next strategic agenda, as stressed by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel. “It is also the time to look forward, identifying the future challenges we will have to face, and defining our strategy to seize all the opportunities that lie ahead to ensure the EU’s resilience and competitiveness in this changing geopolitical environment”, he explained.
The leaders will also examine the enlargement of the EU and the consequences this would have on its functioning. This will be the first discussion on the subject at executive level (see EUROPE 13260/15). “We’re going to see what the sensitivities of the various parties are on the subject so that we can land in December”, explained a source from the Élysée Palace.
In December, European leaders could take decisions on certain candidate countries for EU membership, in particular opening accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.
“It is vital that we contemplate the future dynamics of our Union, our policies and decision-making, among others, to ensure the EU’s continued success. In particular we will address critical questions, such as: What do we do together? How do we decide? How do we match our means with our ambitions?”, summarised Mr Michel in his invitation letter. “Enlargement is an asset for the Union, it will make it more prosperous, more stable, and increase its population by 15%”, explained a senior European official. But this will have consequences for decision-making, policies and the budget to fund them, the official added.
While, according to a source at the Elysée Palace, it is not a question of making enlargement conditional on internal reforms and vice versa, it is necessary to “recognise that in order to enlarge and enlarge under the right conditions, the European Union must reform itself”.
For this source, the Granada summit will not be an opportunity to discuss what reforms are being talked about or whether or not to reopen the treaties, but rather to identify the major blocks of issues that will need to be discussed subsequently, particularly on the major policies, but also on the budget issue. According to an article in the Financial Times, an internal EU study estimates that adding the six countries of the Western Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to the Multiannual Financial Framework would amount to €256.8 billion.
Discussion of the external aspects of migration
In addition to the future of the EU, the summit will also address topical issues, in particular migration, at the request of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. On the night of 3 to 4 October, almost 300 migrants also arrived on board a boat on an island in the Spanish archipelago of the Canaries.
While the ambassadors of the EU Member States reached agreement on Wednesday 4 October on the ‘crisis’ regulation on crisis management and situations of force majeure in the area of migration, the leaders are expected to focus on the external aspects of migration and on concrete actions to be taken towards third countries. They are also expected to discuss the 10-point plan for Lampedusa presented by the President of the European Commission in mid-September (see EUROPE 13252/7). The leaders could also revisit the agreement with Tunisia, negotiated by the European Commission, which has been criticised and whose implementation seems compromised by the Tunisian President, Kaïs Saïed, who has judged the amount of the first financial instalment to be too low.
In addition, according to a European source, the heads of state or government could address the situation in the Caucasus and the tensions between Serbia and Kosovo as well. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant and Pauline Denys, with Mathieu Bion)