On Wednesday 27 September, the Italian authorities cut their growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 and raised public deficit forecasts for the same period.
According to a revision of the ‘Economic and Financial Document’ (DEF), growth will fall to 0.8% of GDP this year and 1.2% next year, compared with 1.0% and 1.5% respectively, forecast in April.
According to the Italian Finance Minister, Giancarlo Giorgetti, the economic situation has deteriorated due to the “tightening of monetary policy and the war in Ukraine”.
The Italian government now expects the public deficit to reach 5.3% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, with a return to below 3% of GDP in 2026. This slippage is due in particular to tax breaks to encourage spending on improving the energy efficiency of private housing.
Italian public debt is expected to remain at around 140% of GDP in 2023 and 2024, before starting to fall.
Among the measures planned in the draft 2024 Italian Finance Bill, Giorgia Meloni’s government has confirmed a reduction in labour taxes, support for families and parenthood, and the continued renewal of employment contracts in the healthcare sector. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)