Europe’s Foreign Affairs Ministers meet in Brussels on Thursday 20 July for their last Council meeting before the summer break.
The day will begin with breakfast with the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, to discuss ways of revitalising the global system for promoting human rights, which is under attack, and to debate more specific situations, such as Ukraine.
Ukraine. The Ministers will then turn their attention once again to the situation in Ukraine. As usual, they will first hold talks with their Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, on the situation on the ground and Ukrainian requests.
The Council is then expected to discuss security commitments: in other words, medium and long-term support for Ukraine.
At the European Council on 29 June, European leaders announced that the EU and its Member States were ready to contribute, together with their partners, to future security commitments to Ukraine (see EUROPE 13212/2). The subject was also discussed at the NATO summit on 11 and 12 July, and in the margins of the summit the G7 countries - of which the EU is a member - announced security commitments to Ukraine (see EUROPE 13221/13).
“We have been supporting Ukraine for a year and a half, but it is high time to make this support, the security commitments, more predictable”, explained a senior European official. According to one European diplomat, “we need to work out how to help Ukraine over several years, including after the conflict”.
These commitments should cover the military aspect, how to support Ukraine in terms of equipment, but also the European defence industry. The EU has also set up a training mission for the Ukrainian army, which may have to evolve depending on the arms given to Kyiv.
According to the senior official, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, is “convinced that military support needs to be framed in a long-term and more predictable perspective”.
The use of the ‘European Peace Facility’ (EPF) dedicated to Ukraine could be discussed. The European External Action Service could propose a special fund for Ukraine - which could be linked to the EPF - worth €20 billion over the next 4 years. Since the start of the war on 24 February 2022, the EU has allocated €5.6 billion from the EPF to Ukraine.
“I think this is the right way to approach the future, but the support (via the EPF) is so high that the money for Ukraine will soon be exhausted, so we have to think about the future and the future is near”, warned the senior official.
Although the EPF is outside the EU budget, the discussion could be linked by some Member States to the mid-term review of the Multiannual Financial Framework.
In addition, Hungary is still blocking an 8th tranche of aid from the EPF amounting to €500 million.
In addition to the military aspects, the EU’s long-term support could include financial aspects, integration into the internal market, diplomacy and the prospect of Ukraine joining the EU.
Discussions on security commitments are due to continue at the informal meetings of Defence and Foreign Affairs Ministers in Toledo at the end of August. Security commitments will also be discussed at the European Council at the end of October.
The Council could also discuss Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s peace formula, following the international meeting on the subject held in Copenhagen at the end of June. The Ministers are expected to discuss ways of supporting this peace plan.
The non-prolongation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative due to Russian opposition should also be debated (see EUROPE 13224/8).
Economic security. Economic security is also on the Ministers’ agenda. It will address the external aspects of the strategy proposed by the Commission in June (see EUROPE 13205/7). It is important, for example, to explain the EU’s approach in this area to its partners, according to one diplomat.
As a reminder, the Commission has indicated that it is considering export restrictions on certain strategic goods, tighter controls on foreign direct investments and, for the first time and more controversially, monitoring outward investment, again in critical sectors (see EUROPE 13188/2).
This debate is part of a long series to come, as several Member States are cautious about the need for and implementation of new instruments of this type.
Turkey. At a lunch in restricted format, the Ministers will discuss relations between the EU and Turkey.
Ahead of the NATO summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan linked Sweden’s membership of the Atlantic Alliance to progress in relations between his country and the EU (see EUROPE 13219/1). According to the senior European official, following Mr Erdogan’s re-election and the formation of a new government, this is “a good time to review relations” between the EU and Turkey, and he believes that there has been a change in the new government’s approach. There are still many areas of disagreement between the EU and Turkey, such as the Eastern Mediterranean, possible assistance in circumventing Russian sanctions, Turkey’s position in certain regional conflicts and the human rights and Rule of law situation in Turkey. The Member States also remain divided on relations.
“We believe that the framework for relations established in 2021 has been useful and is still relevant, but we need to put it to the test. We will see what our friends in Ankara do in various areas”, added the senior European official. The Ministers could discuss what they want from Turkey and what they can offer. According to one diplomat, the aim is to compare views and see “how contacts should be organised, what messages should be conveyed to the Turkish authorities, and what prospects should be given to relations if the actions requested by the EU are made by Turkey”.
The discussion should also foster collective reflection for the report that the High Representative for the Union and the Commission are due to submit in autumn.
Last week in Jakarta, Mr Borrell met Turkey’s new Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, for the first time.
United States. In the afternoon, the European heads of diplomacy will hold a videoconference with the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. Although, according to a senior European official, no discussion subject has been pre-established for the conversation, which is expected to last 1.5 hours, transatlantic relations, but also the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China and the Western Balkans are expected to be discussed.
The Ministers will also formally adopt the negotiating mandate for the agreement on critical minerals between the EU and the United States (see EUROPE 13223/32, 13201/28). This will enable the Commission to make progress in discussions with Washington in the hope of concluding the agreement as quickly as possible (see EUROPE 13219/23). The Member States’ ambassadors to the EU gave their approval on Wednesday 19 July.
Current affairs. The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy is expected to quickly come back to the discussions on China that took place at the last European Council, and will briefly review his meeting with the head of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, last week in Jakarta.
According to the senior European official, this meeting was “a reaffirmation that we maintain frequent high-level contacts with China”. A strategic dialogue between China and the EU is due to be held in the autumn, but no date has yet been set.
Mr Borrell could also inform the Council of the main results of the EU-CELAC summit on 17 and 18 July (see EUROPE 13225/1). The memorandum of understanding signed on Sunday 16 July between the EU and Tunisia could also be discussed (see EUROPE 13224/3).
Efforts to normalise relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, including the meeting held in Brussels on 15 July between the leaders of the two countries and the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, will also be discussed (see EUROPE 13224/5).
The High Representative will also mention the joint visit to North Macedonia by the Foreign Ministers of Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which took place on his behalf on 13 July.
Finally, the Ministers will discuss the Middle East peace process, at a time when tensions are still high between Israelis and Palestinians (see EUROPE 13221/7). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant and Léa Marchal)