On Tuesday 18 July, the Chair of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC), Professor Ottmar Edenhofer, presented his recommendations on the EU’s climate targets for 2040 to the European Parliament’s Environment Committee.
This overview of scientific advice and estimates includes an indicative range of European emissions trajectories, ahead of the Commission’s proposal for a 2040 climate target, expected early next year.
In his speech, Mr Edenhofer highlighted that the Board on Climate Change, made up of economists, engineers, scientists and experts in the social and legal sciences, had adopted “a multidisciplinary approach” to provide the Commission with “high-quality factual and scientific elements”.
In its report published on 15 June (see EUROPE 13203/13), the Advisory Board recommends maintaining the current budget for greenhouse gas emissions, with a limit of 11 to 14 gigatonnes of CO2 between 2030 and 2050. To achieve this objective, as Ottmar Edenhofer pointed out, we need to reduce emissions by 90-95% by 2040 compared to the 1990 baseline.
However, the Chair of the ESABCC also stressed the importance of taking into account the feasibility and equity of these emissions reductions.
In addition, the report highlights the analysis of over 1,000 different scenarios, taking into account various aspects such as geophysics, technology, social and cultural dimensions and environmental risks. The ESABCC’s recommendations indicate a reduction range of 88-95% by 2040, corresponding to a budget of between 11 and 16 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent.
Ottmar Edenhofer reiterated the need for more ambitious targets by 2040 to ensure that the EU makes a fair contribution to mitigating the effects of climate change. On the basis of these conclusions, it recommended that measures be taken “outside the European Union” to supplement ambitious national emission reductions and achieve a fair distribution of the overall effort.
The EU’s targets for 2030, set at a reduction of at least 55% compared to 1990, are considered to be consistent with the recommendations of the European Scientific Advisory Board.
Professor Edenhofer stressed the importance of a “rapid, inclusive and well-managed” transition to achieve the recommended targets. He raised the economic and social implications of this transition and the need for investment and innovation. According to the Chairman of the ESABCC, the key sectors in need of reform are renewable energy, energy demand reduction, agriculture and carbon capture.
Finally, for Ottmar Endenhofer, European legislation can work if the 2030 targets are met, without giving any guarantees. “This does not mean that all the measures will really work. We have not yet analysed the policy elements in our report”, he added. (Original version in French by Nithya Paquiry)