EU leaders are expected to announce, according to draft conclusions from 27 June, that “the European Union and Member States stand ready to contribute, together with partners, to future security commitments to Ukraine, which will help Ukraine defend itself in the long term, deter acts of aggression and resist destabilisation efforts”.
“In this regard, they will swiftly consider the modalities of such contribution”, the text states, which adds that the commitments will be made with full respect for the security and defence policy of certain Member States and take into account the security and defence interests of all Member States.
According to a European source, the notion of “security commitments” should be taken in the broad sense, given that the EU and its Member States are already supporting Ukraine militarily, notably via the European Peace Facility and Ukraine’s accession process.
Some delegations are also waiting to hear about the recommendations of French President Emmanuel Macron, who proposed on 31 May to guarantee Ukraine’s security.
One European diplomat felt that the time had come to talk about these commitments. “We want the EU to make its contribution to security commitments; it is legitimate, it has proved that it is in a position to do so”, he explained, citing skills, equipment and training. He added that the EU could still do more, committing long-term to Ukraine’s security.
However, according to another European source, it is not a question of the EU and the Member States committing themselves to legally binding elements, but rather of sending a message that the EU and the Member States are there to help Ukraine. “I don’t think it will have much substance (...), I don’t see how it would translate into anything more than what has already been done”, added the source, noting that the main discussion would take place at the NATO summit.
The subject is due to be discussed with the Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg (see other news).
Continued support for Ukraine
More broadly, the European leaders, who will be meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by videoconference, are expected to reiterate that the EU will continue to provide strong financial, economic, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine and its people “for as long as necessary”.
The European Council is expected to insist on military support for Ukraine, “notably through the EU Military Assistance Mission and the European Peace Facility”, while Hungary is blocking the release of an eighth tranche of the Facility (see EUROPE 13209/1). “It underlines the importance of Member States’ continued efforts to help meet Ukraine’s pressing military and defence needs”, stresses the text of the conclusions.
The Heads of State or Government should insist on the need to ensure, with partners, stable, predictable and sustainable financial support for Ukraine in the years to come.
The European Council should also consider how to further intensify international support for Ukraine’s peace formula and reiterate its firm intention to ensure that Russia is held fully accountable for its war of aggression. The Member States are still divided between an international tribunal and an internationalised tribunal.
Having considered efforts to further increase pressure on Russia to weaken its ability to wage its war of aggression, including through sanctions, EU leaders should call on the EU Council and the European Parliament to rapidly complete work on the proposed Directive approximating criminal offences and sanctions for breaches of EU restrictive measures.
The European Council should also invite the EU Council, the High Representative and the Commission to take forward work on Russia’s frozen assets, in accordance with EU and international law and in coordination with partners. Member States are said to be divided on the issue, with some concerned about the impact this could have on financial markets and the reputation of the euro. The Commission is expected to make a proposal on the use of frozen assets before the summer break.
Furthermore, a few days after the European Commission’s oral report on Ukraine’s progress on it’s European path, the European Council is expected to encourage the country to continue towards reform. “The European Union will continue to work closely with Ukraine and support its efforts to fully meet all conditions”, the institution is expected to promise.
Discussion on the situation in Russia
Although the subject is not officially on the agenda, the attempt by the head of the Wagner Group, Evgeny Prigozhin, to march on Moscow should be on everyone’s mind and could be mentioned by the leaders (see EUROPE 13209/1).
See the draft conclusions: https://aeur.eu/f/7s3 (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with the Editorial staff)