In an interview with EUROPE in Kyiv at the end of May, the former Chairwoman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the Verkhovna Rada, Hanna Hopko, who also co-founded the International Centre for Ukrainian Victory, said that this year was essential for her country to move forward on its Euro-Atlantic path.
In her view, “2023 is a key year for NATO membership and for (the opening of) EU accession negotiations”. “It is key to open negotiations. Ukraine committed itself to implementing the seven steps when we received candidate status last June. So now it’s important that in 2023, during the Spanish Presidency (of the Council) of the EU, we open negotiations”, insisted the Ukrainian politician. Mrs Hopko recalled that the accession negotiations were a huge task.
While Ukraine is making progress with its reforms, it still does not fully meet the seven criteria set by the European Commission for a favourable opinion on the opening of EU accession negotiations. Legislation concerning politically exposed persons in cases of money laundering, asset declarations, but also concerning justice and the fight against corruption has yet to be adopted.
The best security for Ukraine: joining NATO
As for NATO, Mrs Hopko hoped that progress would be made towards her country’s membership at the Vilnius summit in July. “What Ukraine will get at the NATO summit in Vilnius: that’s the key. The best security for Ukraine is membership”, she said.
Asked about possible security guarantees, Mrs Hopko pointed out that the guarantees given in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum had not been put into effect. “We want security guarantees, but security guarantees before NATO membership is like a middle term step. It’s not a replacement”, warned Mrs Hopko.
She pointed out that 2024 will be an election year in many countries, notably the United States, India, the EU with the European Parliament, but also Russia, and that “nobody will be paying attention to Ukraine, because they will be focused on the elections”. “So we have this historic window of opportunity” in 2023, she insisted.
Continuing arms deliveries
Alongside these institutional advances, Ukraine must continue to defend itself against the Russian invasion. Both Mrs Hopko and Tetiana Shevchuk, from the International Centre for Ukrainian Victory, called for the supply of arms to Ukraine to continue.
In their view, Ukrainian civil society is focusing on this issue because, without arms, Ukraine will not be able to regain control of all Ukrainian territories. “Slowly, the West is providing us with weapons or sanctions, but not at a level to win”, regretted Mrs Hopko. Mrs Shevchuk regretted the lives lost because of slow political decisions on arms deliveries.
The Ukrainian politician also warned against complacency. “What is at stake if Ukraine loses? What is the end game if Ukraine runs out of soldiers?”, she asked, believing that no one was thinking about this possibility. “Everyone thinks that the fighting spirit is so high that we could have an unlimited number of soldiers”, she stressed, adding that, in this war of attrition, it is necessary for Ukraine to receive what it needs more quickly.
On the ground, some Ukrainian officials are more tolerant. “Humanitarian aid and the weapons you have given us (...), this is vital for us. Keep supporting us, we’re going to win”, stressed Anatoli Pochodna, acting head of all the territorial units of the Feodosiivska community, which includes the town of Khotiv, some twenty kilometres South-West of Kyiv. The meeting took place during a visit to Ukraine by a number of European journalists, including EUROPE, from 22 to 26 May, invited by the Platform for the Release of Political Prisoners.
For Yurii Petrovych Kovalchyk, one of the heads of the border guards in the Chernihiv region, which borders Russia and Belarus for 450 km, while the soldiers are well equipped, it is always good to have more ammunition. “If a soldier has 10 sets of bullets, that’s enough. But if the number is bigger, it allows him to fight longer and recharge less”, he explained. Ukrainian border guards are facing off against Russian and Belarusian border guards who are “well equipped” and have “enough equipment to resist”.
“The more international support we have, the more we are understood, the lower the price of our victory. We are talking about the lives of people, civilians and soldiers who die every day”, said Vyacheslav Chaus, Governor of the Chernihiv region.
According to Mr Kovalchyk, while it is possible for Ukraine to win without European aid, “it will take longer”. “But as normal countries, we have to help each other to win against the enemy, that will be quicker”, he added.
More sanctions
In addition to arms, Mrs Hopko called on the EU to adopt more sanctions. “10 sanctions packages are not enough to prevent new massive rocket ballistic cruise missile attacks against critical infrastructure in Ukraine. So there are still many loopholes (in the sanctions). There are some problems, and we have to fix them”, she stressed.
She also felt that the oil price cap should be lowered. “This is the key and it seems like there is no political will on this”, she lamented. According to Mrs Hopko, diamonds and the gold industry should also be subject to sanctions.
Making Russia pay
Furthermore, according to Mrs Hopko, it is important to make use of Russian assets confiscated as part of the sanctions. For Tetiana Shevchuk, Europeans need to do more. According to her, although the available figures differ, “it is at least $300 billion worth of Russia’s sovereign assets, and this money can already be confiscated and given to Ukraine to repair the damage and fuel its economy. It’s not our allies who should pay to keep us afloat”, she explained.
What’s more, in her view, if “everyone thinks or pretends to believe that once the war is over, Russia will willingly compensate” Ukraine, “that will never happen”.
The Europeans are working on the use of frozen Russian assets, but the legal aspects seem difficult. A report by an ad hoc group, which should examine different options and make proposals, will be presented to the European Council in June. Member States could use the interest on financial investments and assets of Russian banks (€200 billion in the EU). On 12 May, the Belgian government announced a military and humanitarian support package for Ukraine worth €92 million from the tax revenues generated by Russian financial assets frozen in Belgium.
Mrs Shevchuk is perplexed by these arguments: in her view, the reuse of Russian funds depends on political will. “The only reason this is not being done, it’s a political will, because technically their legal mechanism can be developed in each and every country. But political leadership is very cautious, even to discuss it”, regretted the expert. And, in her view, if international law does not allow it, it can be amended.
After the war, the funds should not return to Russia, to avoid fuelling a new war, warned Mrs Shevchuk. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant, with Mathieu Bion)