On the evening of Friday, 26 May, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell condemned the agreement that Russia and Belarus signed so as to authorise the deployment of Russian nuclear warheads on Belarusian territory.
“This is a step which will lead to further extremely dangerous escalation”, he stressed in a press release. In his view, this decision runs counter to the commitments Russia made under the Budapest Memorandum, whereby Belarus eliminated all nuclear weapons from its territory, and the Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States of 3 January 2022, according to which a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. Mr Borrell called on Russia to honour these commitments.
Emphasising that the Belarusian regime was complicit in Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, the EU’s high representative called on the Belarusian authorities to put an immediate end to their support and to reverse decisions that can only contribute to heightening tensions in the region and undermine Belarus’s sovereignty.
He also warned, “Any attempt to further escalate the situation will be met by a strong and coordinated reaction”.
Ready for any eventuality
Questioned by a group of journalists, including EUROPE, who had been invited by the Platform for the Release of Political Prisoners to come to Ukraine from 22 to 26 May, military and political leaders claimed they were ready for any eventuality. Belarus is already being used as a base for aircraft, and missiles are being launched from Belarusian territory, according to several Ukrainians we met.
Former chair of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee on Foreign Affairs, Hanna Hopko—who also cofounded the International Centre for Ukrainian Victory—believes that Vladimir Putin intends to use this announcement to test how others will react. “That is why you [editor’s note: Westerners] should tell him that enough is enough”, she told EUROPE during an interview in Kyiv; she believes that it is not for Putin to determine whether the war will end but that he has to be made to stop.
Dmytro Bryzhynskyi—head of military administration in Chernihiv, the region bordering Russia and Belarus—explained that Vladimir Putin “did not [want to lose], could not lose” the war and that, as a result, he could be looking for every opportunity to put himself in a better position to negotiate. “If he cannot, if there are no [positive] changes for the Russian army, then it is possible that Lukashenko will give his army the chance to participate in the conflict”, he said. Describing Mr Putin and Mr Lukashenko as “dictators”, he explained, “Until there are no longer any dictators, there will always be a threat”.
In the event of another attack on the northern front, as was the case in February 2022, “which is always a possibility”, the military leader specified, “If necessary, we are ready to fight again”.
The same was heard from Colonel Yuri Petrovich Kovalchyk, one of those in charge of the border guards in the Chernihiv region. Although it is virtually impossible to predict what is going to happen, he noted, “[Since] the war is not [following] international rules”, “we are ready for any challenges”.
The governor of the Chernihiv region, Viacheslav Chaus stated, “The residents have already survived a lot and are ready [for another attack]”. “They [...] managed to stop Russian tanks at the border and made the tanks turn around. So, our population is very strong. But still, we are aware that situation would be very difficult in [the] case of nuclear help”, he acknowledged. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)