EU leaders are expected to reiterate their support for Ukraine at their summit on 23-24 March, following a video conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The EU will continue to provide “strong political, economic, military, financial and humanitarian support to Ukraine and its people for as long as it takes”, says the 21 March draft conclusions. It is also a question of “pursuing work on accountability, on the use of frozen Russian assets and rallying the global community behind the rules-based international order”, added the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, in his letter of invitation to the European heads of state or government.
According to the draft conclusions, leaders will welcome the agreement reached in the EU Council to facilitate the immediate supply of ammunition to Ukraine (see EUROPE 13145/1).
The High Representative of the Union said that EU leaders could also discuss replenishing the ‘European Peace Facility’ with an additional €3.5 billion.
“Several leaders have indicated that they want to discuss this and some would like to see a positive decision and a clear indication that we are moving towards this (€3.5 billion) model. We will see if all delegations are ready to give their agreement”, explained a senior official, adding that there was still “some work to do”.
While one diplomat was more optimistic, explaining that there was “an agreement” on this ceiling, another explained that it was necessary to look at the conditions of the Facility’s replenishment and what the sequence of commitment and payment was.
Implementation of sanctions
According to the draft conclusions, the European Council is expected to stress its commitment in “maintaining and increasing collective pressure on Russia, including through possible further restrictive measures”.
For one diplomat, the challenge is now shifting to the proper implementation of sanctions and the fight against circumvention. The European Council is expected to underline the “importance and urgency of stepping up efforts to ensure effective implementation of sanctions at European and national level” and that it is “firmly committed to effectively preventing and countering circumvention in and by third countries”. For this, the leaders will reportedly call on the EU Council and the Commission “to strengthen all necessary enforcement instruments and to develop, together with Member States, a fully coordinated approach to that effect”.
Furthermore, together with its partners, the EU is expected to pledge to continue to intensify work to use frozen and immobilised Russian assets for the reconstruction of Ukraine and for reparations, in accordance with EU and international law.
International justice
Reiterating its condemnation of the Russian war of aggression and calling for respect for humanitarian law, the European Council should “take note” of the arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court against Vladimir Putin and his Commissioner for Children’s Rights for the war crime of illegally deporting and transferring Ukrainian children from the occupied regions of Ukraine to Russia. “Russia must immediately ensure the safe return of Ukrainians forcibly transferred or deported to Russia, especially children”, the leaders are expected to stress.
More broadly, the European Council will recall that the EU is “firmly committed to ensuring full accountability for war crimes and the other most serious crimes committed in connection with Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, including through the establishment of an appropriate mechanism for the prosecution of the crime of aggression”. In this respect, it will reportedly welcome the agreement to establish the new International Centre for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine (ICPA) in The Hague and the upcoming negotiations on a new international treaty on mutual legal assistance and extradition for atrocity crimes.
Leaders are also expected to condemn Iran’s and Belarus’ military support for Russia. Without naming China, leaders will most likely urge all countries not to provide material or other support to Russia.
International support
The European Council is expected as well to welcome the UN General Assembly resolution entitled ‘Principles of the Charter of the United Nations underlying a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine’ and reaffirm its support for President Zelensky’s peace formula.
It should also take note of the extension of the UN Black Sea Grain Initiative for another 60 days, compared to 120 previously.
The European Council will reportedly, as well, invite the Commission to present a support package for Moldova before its next meeting.
Belarus. Strongly opposing the sentencing of “prominent representatives” of the Belarusian democratic opposition to “long and unjustified” prison terms (see EUROPE 13136/24), the European Council is expected to call on the Belarusian authorities to uphold human rights, democracy and the rule of law, to end repression and to release political prisoners.
Balkans. In addition, after being briefed by the EU High Representative, EU leaders should welcome the agreement on the Annex on the Implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation of Relations between Kosovo and Serbia (see EUROPE 13145/5), calling on both sides to fulfil their respective obligations “expediently and in good faith”.
UN. The European Council will start with a working lunch with UN Secretary General António Guterres to discuss “major geopolitical issues and global challenges”, according to Mr Michel. Diplomats said that climate and biodiversity could be part of the discussions.
See the draft conclusions: https://aeur.eu/f/5yd (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with the editorial staff)