In the event of a complete halt to Russian gas pipeline deliveries to the European Union and a resumption of Chinese liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, Europe could face a 30 billion cubic metre (bcm) shortfall of fossil gas next summer, according to a new report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday 3 November.
This shortfall would come at a key time, as it is the period when gas stocks are being filled in preparation for winter.
According to the IEA, the EU could be short almost half the gas needed to fill its storage sites to 95% of their capacity by the start of the 2023-2024 heating season.
While a drop in China’s LNG imports in the first 10 months of 2022 has provided the EU with ample LNG availability to compensate for the drop in Russian gas deliveries, the report points out that a return of China’s imports to their 2021 level would account for more than 85% of the projected increase in global LNG supply. However, global LNG supply is only expected to increase by 20 billion m3 in 2023, a level “much less than the likely decline in Russian pipeline deliveries to the EU next year”.
Believing that Europe “is set to face an even sterner challenge next winter”, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol called on governments to take immediate action to boost energy efficiency and the deployment of renewables and heat pumps as well as other measures to “structurally reduce gas demand”.
He added: “With the recent mild weather and lower gas prices, there is a danger of complacency creeping into the conversation around Europe’s gas supplies, but we are by no means out of the woods yet”.
See the report: https://aeur.eu/f/3wu (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)