World merchandise trade volume is expected to grow 3.5% in 2022, according to the latest forecasts from the World Trade Organization (WTO). In April, the Organisation had forecast 3% growth (see EUROPE 12931/15).
However, the forecasts published on Wednesday 5 October predict much lower growth for 2023. Instead of the 3.4% predicted in April, the WTO is now expecting 1% growth.
Trade is largely affected by the war in Ukraine, high energy prices, inflation and monetary tightening, says the WTO.
“Policymakers are confronted with unenviable choices as they try to find an optimal balance among tackling inflation, maintaining full employment, and advancing important policy goals such as transitioning to clean energy”, said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
She also called on members not to be tempted by restrictive trade measures: “A retrenchment of global supply chains would only deepen inflationary pressures, leading to slower economic growth and reduced living standards over time”.
WTO economist Coleman Nee said, however, that the estimates were surrounded by uncertainty, due to the nature of the conflict in Ukraine and the current challenges.
See the forecasts: https://aeur.eu/f/3eu (Original version in French by Léa Marchal)