On Monday 16 May, the European Union’s Ministers of Foreign Affairs will meet in Brussels for an EU Council meeting that will focus on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also on relations with the Western Balkans.
Ukraine. The ministers will review the situation in Ukraine with their Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba.
According to an EU diplomat, the aim is to listen to Mr Kuleba’s assessment of the situation and to see what the EU can contribute in a complementary way in this new phase of the conflict with the offensive in the Donbass, and as the conflict gradually becomes more protracted.
The ministers could discuss military support for Ukraine, including a further €500 million to support the Ukrainian army through the European Peace Facility.
“These €500 million will be allocated to heavy weapons”, explained the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, on Friday 13 May, upon his arrival at the G7 Foreign Affairs meeting in Germany, recalling that the Member States were already providing armoured vehicles, tanks, heavy artillery, ammunition - “the things needed for this kind of war”.
According to a senior EU official, unlike the previous three packages, which were divided into €450 million for lethal weapons and €50 million for non-lethal military support, this one will be divided as follows: €490 million for lethal equipment and €10 million for non-lethal equipment. If this new support is accepted, this will mean that, since the beginning of the war at the end of February, €2 billion from the Facility will have been spent on Ukraine.
The ministers are also expected to discuss the sixth package of sanctions against Russia, which has still not been agreed upon (see EUROPE 12949/15). “I am sure we will have an agreement - we need this agreement and we will have it. Because we have to get rid of the oil dependency on Russia”, the High Representative stressed. He said he hoped that the EU ministers will be able to give “the necessary political impetus”.
The question of a progressive embargo on Russian oil is still pending. Discussions between the European Commission and countries, such as Hungary, for which such an embargo would jeopardise their security of energy supply are continuing. “The work is about concrete alternatives, with a clear plan to get out of dependence on Russia in the shortest possible time”, explained an EU source. According to this source, it is not just a matter of talking about the date for the implementation of the embargo or financial compensation.
Excluding Hungary from the embargo or decoupling from the sanctions package in order to adopt the other proposed measures and continue discussions on oil is not expected to be formally on the table (see EUROPE 12945/1). “The sixth package is a package, it is up to the Member States to decide whether to split it or not. But coherence must be preserved”, warned a senior EU official.
The importance of accountability, as well as the impact of war at the international level, including disinformation and food security, could also be discussed. The EU is cooperating with Ukraine to try to get wheat stuck in the country out onto the market. As access to the sea is very complicated, this wheat could be evacuated by land. “We are working hard with the Ukrainian authorities on this issue”, said the senior official (see EUROPE 12951/4).
The EU Defence Ministers will also discuss the war in Ukraine at their EU Council meeting on Tuesday 17 May (see EUROPE 12952/11).
Western Balkans. The ministers will discuss as well the situation in the Western Balkans, first among themselves and then over lunch with their counterparts from the region.
Just like the dinner organised on Wednesday 11 May between the High Representative of the Union and the leaders of the region (see EUROPE 12950/22), the discussions are expected to focus on the impact of the war in Ukraine on the region, whose countries are destined to join the EU, including potential actions and interference that they could experience.
“The idea is to see how we can help (these countries) to be more resilient”, said a senior European official. According to a diplomat, the EU is considering additional measures to strengthen cooperation between the Union and the Western Balkans, particularly in terms of security and defence. However, no announcement is expected on Monday.
While all Balkan countries denounced the Russian aggression, Serbia did not align itself with the EU’s statements and sanctions. EU ministers will reportedly use the meeting to impress upon their Serbian counterpart the importance of doing so, although several EU sources acknowledged that the adoption of EU sanctions against Belgrade would have far-reaching consequences for the country.
The debate is also expected to return to the heightened tensions in the region in recent months. The dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo is bogged down and Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing separatist aspirations.
The aim of the discussion is to also hear the expectations and concerns of the ministers from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia towards the EU.
And if the subject of enlargement is not dealt with by the Foreign Affairs Council, but by the EU General Affairs Council, one diplomat acknowledged that the subject will be on everyone’s mind. It will reportedly be mentioned by several ministers.
Current affairs. In addition, the EU High Representative is expected to quickly report back on his trip to Chile (see EUROPE 12943/15) and Panama. The situation in Ethiopia could also be mentioned ahead of a discussion at the June EU Council.
It should be noted that the Greek representative is expected to inform his counterparts about the recent and numerous violations of Greek airspace by Turkish aircraft.
The EU’s financial support to Palestine will also be discussed. The European Commission is blocking the disbursement of financial support to the Palestinian Authority because of allegations that Palestinian school books contain antisemitic, racist or incitement to hatred and violence, despite opposition from Member States (see EUROPE 12930/7).
The European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi “is still very reluctant to allow funds to be paid to the Palestinian Authority, even though a large majority of Member States are in favour of it”, an European source said. According to a senior EU official, “the debate will be political, in the sense that Member States will express their desire for the funds to be disbursed”.
The Finnish and Swedish ministers could also inform the EU Council about the ongoing discussions in their countries regarding NATO membership (see EUROPE 12951/1).
Finally, without debate, the EU Council is expected to approve conclusions on an EU strategic approach to disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of former combatants (DDR) and to adopt the EU’s position for the fourth meeting of the EU-Armenia Partnership Council, scheduled for 18 May.
Canada. The EU Council will be preceded by an EU/Canada Joint Ministerial Committee, in the presence of Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly.
The Committee will review the state of bilateral relations and make recommendations for deepening cooperation in areas of mutual interest over the coming year, according to the EU Council. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with Émilie Vanderhulst)