The sharp rise in fossil gas prices in 2021 has led to a substitution of gas for renewables in the European Union at the expense of a further coal phase-out, says a report that was published by the Ember think-tank on Tuesday 1 February.
While the generation of renewable electricity in Europe grew by an average of 44 TWh per year between 2019 and 2021, Ember estimates that more than half (52%) of this new generation was a substitute for gas-fired electricity, compared to only one sixth for coal.
However, between 2011 and 2019, more than 80% of the additional renewable electricity was replacing coal, noted the report.
According to Ember, the decrease in coal-fired power generation in some EU countries that have closed power plants – such as Spain (-42%) and Greece (-43%) – has been largely offset by increases that have been made in Poland (+7%).
Furthermore, the increase in nuclear outages and closures has also reduced the extent of the decline in coal production.
In total, coal-fired electricity generation in the EU has thereby fallen by only 3% since 2019, compared with 29% in the previous two years, the organisation estimates.
Calling it a “paradigm shift in the EU’s electricity transition”, Ember is concerned about the consequences in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
“Between 2019 and 2021, EU power sector emissions declined at less than half the rate required for 1.5°C”, the report says.
It also estimates that the share of fossil fuels in EU electricity production will be 37% in 2021 (compared to 39% in 2019) and that the share of renewables will also be lower. The remaining 26% of electricity was supplied by nuclear power plants.
See the report: https://aeur.eu/f/46 (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)