In February 2018, the Christian Democrat family in the European Parliament torpedoed the call for transnational lists for the 2019 European elections (see EUROPE 11956/1). In the meantime, the European Council had endorsed the reform of Parliament, reducing the size of the Chamber to 705 MEPs after Brexit, thus freeing up a ‘reserve’ of 46 seats (see EUROPE 11968/2).
Following the 2019 elections, EU leaders had refused to sign up to the ‘Spitzenkandidaten’ process whereby the leading candidate of the winning European political party - some say able to muster a stable political majority in Parliament - would become President of the European Commission, as was the case in 2014 with the ‘Juncker’ Commission.
In favour of transnational lists, French President Emmanuel Macron had ruled out the possibility of German Manfred Weber, Spitzenkandidat of the European People’s Party (EPP), becoming Commission President, not naming him in June 2019 as one of the most competent candidates. Mr Weber, like other Spitzenkandidaten such as Frans Timmermans for the Social Democrats and Margrethe Vestager for the Liberals, had certainly not succeeded in gathering a majority in Parliament around them. The current Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, narrowly elected by Parliament in July 2019, owes a lot to the French President as well as the President of the European Council, the Belgian liberal Charles Michel, and France’s Christine Lagarde, appointed to head the ECB, whose names were also on the winning ticket for top European appointments.
This episode was also a way to make the EPP pay for its rejection of transnational lists, because, according to Mr Macron, the Spiztenkandidaten process is only possible with transnational lists. In this political ring, where it is an eye for an eye to the almost complete indifference of European citizens, Mr Manfred Weber was then quick to demolish the nomination of Sylvie Goulard, who was later sent by Paris to sit on the European Commission.
February 2022. As the 2019-2024 legislature enters its second half with the election of Maltese Christian Democrat Roberta Metsola, MEPs have reopened discussions on reforming the EU’s Electoral Law, one of the few pieces of EU legislation where Parliament has the initiative. The issue regarding the creation of transnational lists for the 2024 elections is again clearly raised in the discussions on the draft report led by Domènec Ruiz Devesa in the Committee on Constitutional Affairs (AFCO).
What is new is that the very principle of transnational lists is no longer questioned by the Christian Democrats. On the sidelines of Mrs Metsola’s election, the EPP group was party to this in black and white by approving the programme document drawn up with the S&D and Renew Europe groups (see EUROPE 12870/2). This agreement seals a pro-European majority by 2024, but says nothing about the size of the transnational lists.
The inclusion of transnational lists in the inter-group agreement was “a condition sine qua non of Stéphane Séjourné”, the President of the Renew Europe group, a parliamentary source said. In their view, Manfred Weber’s acceptance of such a concession, at the risk of alienating part of his group, represents a real step forward and going further at the beginning of 2022 could have derailed the agreement.
The subject remains highly controversial in the EPP. During a debate in the AFCO Committee on Wednesday 26 January, Portuguese MEP Paolo Rangel expressed his concern about transnational lists, describing them as contrary to the federalist spirit to which he subscribes and as a source of tension between ‘big countries’, citing France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Poland - and other Member States.
Nevertheless, the EPP has made several proposals. Last autumn, the German Sven Simon suggested transnational lists to elect 27 members, one from each Member State and chosen from the winning national party. This renationalisation of the exercise is unacceptable to the supporters of transnational lists. From now on, Mr Weber would only defend lists that would elect seven MEPs. Seven is the number of political groups currently formed in Parliament. Some believe that he intends to minimally respect the inter-group agreement while positioning himself as a future Christian Democrat ‘Spitzenkandidat’ in order to win the Commission presidency in 2024, after the EPP presidency he seeks.
Unsurprisingly, the ambition of the Renew Europe group is much stronger. There are several figures circulating within it. Belgian Liberal Guy Verhofstadt would refuse to negotiate lists of less than 21 elected members. Others mention the figure of 40 elected, close to the ‘reserve’ of 46 seats. In any case, “coherence is needed between the rules for forming political groups in Parliament and the rules for constituting transnational lists”, said Antoine Guéry, spokesman for Mr Séjourné. In order to bring the positions of the EPP and Renew Europe groups closer together, Manfred Weber and Stéphane Séjourné are due to discuss the issue bilaterally, EUROPE was unable to confirm the date of Wednesday 2 February.
“We are a bit stuck on the issue of the number of MEPs in the European constituency”, Mr Ruiz Devesa admits. “I am not dogmatic about the number”, he added, considering it essential to make this constituency a reality for the 2024 European elections, while respecting a geographical and demographic balance, and then to expand it in successive European elections.
On the other hand, Mr Ruiz Devesa said, there is an agreement that the distribution of seats should follow the d’Hondt rule. From a minimum of 15 elected members, each current political group would be represented in Parliament after the 2024 elections, including the Greens/EFA and The Left groups, as opposed to transnational lists of seven candidates.
The rapporteur warns against the risk of losing the opportunity the French Presidency of the EU Council provides in the first half of 2022. Paris is not hiding its desire to push the dossier through the EU Council, where unanimity of Member States is required to approve the reform.
“If we vote in June, it will be too late”, warns Mr Ruiz Devesa. His objective remains to reach a political agreement in the AFCO Committee including the EPP group in order to avoid a repeat of the February 2018 roadblock, in the plenary vote potentially in the spring. Once Parliament’s position has been established, the French authorities could then mobilise their experts to sound out the various capitals, or even include the issue in a meeting of the ‘General Affairs’ Council. A political agreement is needed at the latest one year before the 2024 elections in order to transpose it into national law, i.e. in the first quarter of 2023.
Speaking in the AFCO Committee on Wednesday 26 January, the French Secretary of State for European Affairs, Clément Beaune, stressed the need to “reassure” the smallest States in terms of population, “which may be concerned that a transnational list would be a tool that would favour the ‘big’ States in terms of the number of parliamentarians that would be elected through this mechanism”.
The logic behind transnational lists, according to Mr Beaune, “is to create a sense of belonging, complementary to what will obviously still be the main element in 2024, namely the election in each country of a quota of MEPs”. “It will be one of the tools, not a miracle cure, to (...) strengthen the membership, interest and reflect what Parliament is, a transnational institution”, he added.
The French Presidency’s task will be far from easy to overcome the reluctance, even hostility, of certain governments towards a measure sometimes described as the realisation of a federalist fad. Hungary, where Viktor Orbán is entering an election campaign and is engaged in a tug-of-war at the European level over respect for the Rule of law and the reforms associated with the Hungarian recovery plan, does not seem inclined to make concessions on this issue. It is not the only Member State.
Some believe that the solution will come from European citizens themselves. Often cited as a driving force for future institutional reforms, the Conference on the Future of Europe is looking at how to make European democracy more dynamic. One of its citizens’ panels suggests that the EU Electoral Law should harmonise electoral requirements: voting age, election dates, requirements for constituencies, candidates, political parties and their funding. And the panel advocates the creation of transnational lists which would eventually become the rule. “European citizens should have the right to vote for different parties at EU level, each composed of candidates from several Member States. For a sufficient transition period, citizens could still vote for national and transnational parties”, the panel says.
Mathieu Bion
(Original version in French)