The Foreign Ministers of the EU27 will meet again in Brussels on Monday 13 December for an EU Council meeting with a busy agenda.
Afghanistan and Central Asia. The ministers will discuss the EU’s relations with Central Asia, both with the region as such, but also in relation to the situation in Afghanistan. This discussion follows the EU/Central Asia ministerial meeting on 22 November, at which, according to a European source, there was a desire on the part of these countries to have more contact with the EU (see EUROPE 12837/18). According to a senior European official, the ministers will discuss what the EU can do to contribute to the stability and prosperity of the region.
But they are expected to first look at Afghanistan. The EU Council is expected to discuss progress, or lack thereof, on the five criteria set in September for operational engagement with the Taliban (see EUROPE 12783/1).
The discussion will continue over lunch with Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed Al-Thani, whose country has become the preferred channel for Afghanistan-related diplomacy and logistics.
Relations with the Gulf will also be discussed, ahead of the presentation of a new EU strategy for the region in 2022 and after ministers called in October for stronger bilateral ties (see EUROPE 12814/2).
Relations with Africa. EU-Africa relations will be the first formal point of discussion. The ministers will have an exchange of views in preparation for the European Council meeting on 14 December, which will include preparations for the sixth EU-African Union Summit on its agenda.
“Relations with Africa are one of the EU’s key relationships. The discussion will cover a wide range of areas: security, economy, and development, in preparation for next week’s leaders’ discussion and in light of the EU/AU summit envisaged next year”, a senior European official said on Friday.
The EU/AU summit, which was to be held in 2020, has had to be postponed many times. It is now scheduled for February, under the French Presidency of the EU Council, with the aim of strengthening the strategic partnership between the two continents through a common strategy and thus addressing common challenges together. However, confirmation from the African side is still pending concerning 17-18 February (see EUROPE 12843/8).
On Monday, “it will be a question of taking stock of EU/Africa relations in the broadest sense by addressing both challenges and opportunities, to see how to better coordinate in order to revitalise this partnership”, explained a diplomat.
On 10 December, Emmanuel Macron unveiled the expectations of the future French Presidency, which intends to make relations with Africa a priority in order to rebuild the relationship with clear objectives and a political approach. Among the objectives, he cited support for the continent’s economic recovery through an investment package, health and vaccines against Covid-19, security and peace (see EUROPE 12850/17).
“Monday will be a first step in the preparation. Work will accelerate in January and February”, according to another diplomatic source.
Ethiopia. At the end of the meeting, ministers will again exchange views on the extremely worrying situation in the country since the outbreak of civil war, which is aggravating a major humanitarian crisis and threatening Ethiopia with collapse, with the risk of destabilising the entire region (see EUROPE 12844/8).
The objective of the discussion is to identify solutions to finally achieve a ceasefire and the resumption of political dialogue between the government and the rebels in Tigray (see EUROPE 12833/30, 12826/5).
Sanctions, which have been threatened since April by High Representative Josep Borrell, are still on the table, but will not be discussed.
“The positions are diverse. Preparatory work is underway, but there is no unified position for moving forward. Some believe that there should be room for mediation. Others argue for the sanctions regime for human rights violations”, stressed a diplomat on Friday.
Another diplomatic source added: “we need to see how the EU can act in the most positive way possible, through humanitarian aid and support for the African Union’s mediation. Sanctions are possible, but we are not yet ready for that”.
Venezuela. The ministers will also discuss the situation in Venezuela after the local and regional elections on 21 November (see EUROPE 12839/31). They are expected to take stock of the EU Election Observation Mission in the presence of its chair, MEP Isabel Santos (S&D, Portugual), who will brief them on the mission’s preliminary findings. The EU Council could also try to outline the prospects for more political efforts, taking into account the ongoing dialogue between the government and the opposition in Mexico City, according to an EU source.
Ukraine. The EU Council is expected to return soon to the reinforcement of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, as well as to the hybrid threats that Kiev is facing. “The aim is to take stock of the situation in connection with the discussion, which will probably continue at the European Council”, explained a European diplomat (see EUROPE 12850/24). Ministers are expected to reiterate their commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. If the situation were to escalate, “there would be a political and economic response”, warned a senior official. ”If there is aggression, there must be a price to pay. This is obvious”, said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after a meeting in Brussels with the new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. Germany and its partners “will react in the event of a violation of a country’s territorial integrity”, Mr Scholz added, stressing the importance “above all of preventing a conflict”.
Belarus. The heads of diplomacy will also review the situation in Belarus, in connection with the EU’s latest actions: diplomatic efforts with third countries and airlines linked to the arrival of migrants, humanitarian aid, the new sanctions package and the fight against disinformation.
Cyprus. The ministers will also review the situation in Varosha (Cyprus) and discuss possible options for dealing with Turkey, which aims to change the town’s status (see EUROPE 12770/1) on the basis of a document prepared by the European External Action Service. According to a senior European official, the aim is to “translate solidarity with Cyprus into action”.
A European source said that there was still the possibility of restrictive measures, but that there could be economic sanctions, measures concerning the customs union, or high-level dialogues. This source considered it likely that there will be no decision at the EU Council.
China. At the request of Lithuania, the ministers will return to relations with China. The Lithuanian Minister is expected to inform his counterparts about the Chinese measures his country is facing (see EUROPE 12849/2).
Several delegations could reportedly take advantage of the discussion to put the question of a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics on the table, wishing to consult on the posture to be taken.
Mali. The EU Foreign Affairs Council will adopt the legal framework for sanctions against those who have or will obstruct the transition process. At their previous meeting in November, the ministers gave their political agreement to this framework of targeted sanctions, which has since been finalised (see EUROPE 12832/3).
The ministers will have the opportunity to discuss the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) summit, which will be held on Sunday, on the eve of the Foreign Affairs Council meeting, a diplomat said on Friday.
Security. Without debate, Ministers will adopt sanctions against the Russian company Wagner (see EUROPE 12833/31). According to a senior European official, these are three entities and eight individuals linked to Wagner, sanctioned under the ‘Libya’, ‘Ukraine’, ‘Syria’ and ‘Human Rights’ sanctions regimes, for different complaints. It will be “a global response to this phenomenon and to the actions of the country that hosts this company”, explained a diplomat.
CSDP. Finally, the EU Council will adopt conclusions on the civilian CSDP pact. According to a draft of the conclusions obtained by EUROPE on 7 December, it is expected to reaffirm its full commitment to making the civilian CSDP “more effective, efficient, flexible and responsive, as well as more inclusive”.
The EU Council is also expected to underline that the changing security environment requires a regular process of assessment and reflection to ensure that the mandates of CSDP civilian missions remain relevant.
It is also expected to welcome the “generally positive” progress made in the implementation of the pact adopted at the end of 2018. According to the EU Council, it is important to collectively ensure the full and consistent implementation of all the commitments contained in the Pact “as soon as possible, but no later than early summer 2023”.
Energy prices. In addition, on the sidelines at the meeting, Belgium will organise, on behalf of the Benelux countries, a breakfast with the director general of the International Energy Agency to allow for a geopolitical exchange of views on the surge in energy prices. (Original version in French by Aminata Niang and Camille-Cerise Gessant)