According to the latest data published by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Monday 4 October, the volume of world trade in goods is expected to grow by 10.8% in 2021 compared to 2020. In March, the WTO had forecast 8% growth (see EUROPE 12691/17).
In 2022, the development of trade in goods is expected to slow down by 4%.
This considerable increase in merchandise trade in 2021 should be seen in the context of its collapse in the previous year, particularly in the second quarter. For this reason, growth in the volume of trade in goods reached 22% in the second quarter of 2021.
This figure is expected to decrease in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 to 6.6%.
Shortage issues, such as those in the semiconductor sector, are not expected to have a major impact on these figures.
However, the WTO warns of the continuing global regional disparities. Asian countries are expected to see their exports increase by 9.4% in 2021 compared to 2019. On the contrary, for the least developed countries, exports are expected to fall by 1.6%. The organisation had already indicated this risk in its March estimates.
Finally, the services sector is still lagging behind the goods sector. Overall, services declined by 9% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to 2020. However, the organisation considers that this trend should become positive again in the second quarter.
WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stressed the importance of trade in the fight against the pandemic and the urgent need for a more equitable redistribution of Covid-19 vaccines around the world. “The longer vaccine inequity is allowed to persist, the greater the chance that even more dangerous variants of Covid-19 will emerge, setting back the health and economic progress we have made to date. Vaccine policy is economic policy, and trade policy”, she said on 4 October.
See WTO estimates: https://bit.ly/3uG168g (Original version in French by Léa Marchal)