The report on the short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets, published on Tuesday 6 July 2021 by the European Commission, provides a positive overview of the projections for each agri-food sector.
For arable crops, prices have been subject to notable variations in the spring and for 2021/2022, EU cereal production is expected to reach 288.7 million tonnes, an increase of 3% compared to last year (thanks to an increase in soft and durum wheat and maize). Similarly, EU oilseed and protein crops production could increase to 30.1 million tonnes (+9.5% compared to last year) and 4.6 million tonnes (+6.7%) respectively. EU cereal and oilmeal use for feed is expected to rise, as well as vegetable oils consumption for food and industrial purposes.
For sugar beet, EU production is expected to reach around 110 million tonnes in 2021/22, an increase compared to the 99 million tonnes of the previous marketing year.
Specialised crops. EU olive oil production reached 2.1 million tonnes in 2020/21 (+7% compared to 2019/20). Given the expected growth of exports (up 7%) and EU demand recovering, stocks of olive oil could fall below 400,000 tonnes. These developments have led to a rise in prices, with EU prices of extra virgin olive oil at above average levels in Spain, Italy and Greece.
EU wine production is above average in 2020/21, at 157 million hectolitres. However, stocks are expected to remain stable.
As for tomatoes, EU production is expected to increase by 5% in 2021.
EU production of peaches and nectarines is at a record low for the second consecutive year due to adverse weather conditions. In 2021, total EU production is expected to be at 2.8 million tonnes, a drop of 20% compared to 2020.
Milk and dairy products. After a cold spring, EU milk collection should recover and result in an annual growth of 0.8% in 2021 and reach more than 146 million tonnes. EU cheese and butter production is expected to slightly grow in 2021, respectively by 0.8% (more than 86,000 tonnes) and 1% (around 23,000 tonnes). EU consumption of cheese and butter could grow by 1% in 2021.
Meat. EU beef production is expected to fall by 1.3% or 92,000 tonnes in 2021, due to lower demand from food services. However, exports to high value markets such as Canada and Japan should continue to increase thanks to recent trade agreements.
As for pigmeat, EU production should continue to increase in 2021 (+1.7%).
For poultry, EU production is expected to decrease by 0.9% in 2021. Lastly, EU sheep and goat meat production should remain stable in 2021.
Link to the short-term outlook: https://bit.ly/2UuXJD3 (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)