The EU’s chief negotiator for the post-Brexit relationship, Michel Barnier, told national ambassadors to the EU on Monday 14 December that an agreement with London “remains possible” and that it “is the responsibility” of negotiators to continue their negotiations and obtain this agreement.
He was speaking the day after a new telephone conversation between the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, during which the two leaders decided to “go the extra mile” and try to reach an agreement, according to a joint statement. The two leaders will return to this point later, with Michel Barnier looking to Wednesday or Friday to make a new assessment.
The negotiator highlighted some progress when speaking to the Ambassadors, notably with regard to fair competition rules, as well as advances having been made on the mechanism aimed at managing differences, and on governance. However, this progress has yet to be translated into concrete action, one source said. In terms of fisheries, the positions remain far apart.
Michel Barnier envisaged three scenarios at this stage, said another source: a first scenario would see a breakthrough this week, therefore enabling ratification by the European Parliament to be taken in time. The second scenario envisages that negotiations could still take a little longer and lead to an agreement at a later point. There would therefore be a technical “no deal” situation that would last for a short period of time and would be managed on 1 January; this situation could be mitigated by measures taken to prepare for a no deal situation, as long as the United Kingdom applies reciprocity. Finally, the last scenario is a scenario where the talks fails and therefore lead to a more lasting no deal: the talks could then continue in 2021, but in a different form.
A few interventions punctuated this debate, notably from those countries most concerned by fisheries. Other countries referred to the modalities relating to the provisional application of the agreement in case of late ratification.
The EU negotiator then met with MEPs and told them he saw “a narrow path” towards reaching an agreement with London “before the end of the year”.
Michel Barnier noted the areas where work has been completed (energy, road transport, participation in EU programmes, with the exception ofErasmus – where the British have demanded too much – and social security).
In respect of a level playing field, the United Kingdom would be prepared to accept a mechanism of unilateral measures should systemic divergences have an impact on trade and investment.
Regarding fisheries, the UK would expect flexibility from the EU since it believes it has reached out to the EU in respect of a level playing field.
The European Parliament, for its part, is getting its act together: it will vote this week on new measures to prepare for a ‘no deal’, but has given up the idea of having a resolution on ‘no deal’ at this stage, since negotiations are continuing. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)