As several attacks have hit France and Austria in recent weeks, EU Member States will discuss the terrorist threat at the meeting of the EU Council Working Group on Terrorism on 12 November. The Council’s Committee on Internal Security (COSI) is expected to adopt policy recommendations on 19 November.
Prior to that, on 13 November, the home affairs ministers of the Member States will have a videoconference and are also expected to discuss terrorism in addition to their planned debate on the Pact on Migration and Asylum and see how to strengthen information on persons presenting a terrorist risk.
The working group on 12 November will talk about precisely all this. Two documents seen by EUROPE, which the Member States were to amend, prepare the debate: the first refers to the terrorist threat in general, which remains “as high as ever” and stems mainly from jihadism or the extreme right, says a note of 30 October; the other invites the Member States to reflect on how to better alert themselves on individuals at risk and to better integrate them into European databases such as the Schengen Information System (SIS).
Indeed, there are no common standards or criteria on how persons posing a terrorist or violent extremist threat should be included in databases.
In terms of the general context, the number of attacks in 2020 has decreased largely because of Covid-19, but terrorist propaganda has increased, the note states, citing Europol reports.
With regard to Islamist terrorism, the threat remains high and attacks of this nature increased between January and July compared to the previous reporting period in 2019.
Some countries have been much more targeted than others, the note says, but at the same time violence attributed to the extreme right has also increased, making it an equally persistent threat, although in this case terrorist attacks have remained few in number, with the note referring to the Hanau attack in Germany in February 2020. The volume of violence from the extreme left that could lead to terrorist attacks remains fairly low.
The note recalls that attacks committed alone, reproducing past attacks inspired by the Islamic State, and using rudimentary weapons (edged weapons, small arms) predominate. Many of the attackers appear to have mental health problems, making it difficult to identify them as a potential threat.
The Presidency also notes that Covid-19 may increase terrorist interest in biological attacks, or even the use of Covid-19 to carry out an attack, but no concrete signs of plans to do so have yet come to light.
The activities of the extreme right have been boosted by the pandemic, the note says, situating these violent actions in the context of public demonstrations against health measures.
Among the policy recommendations, the note therefore calls on Member States to address the effects of the pandemic on radicalisation and on already fragile minds that are at risk of tipping over, with particular emphasis in the latter case on potential attacks by the extreme right.
While very few, if any, foreign fighters were able to return to Europe in 2020, partly as a result of the pandemic, the situation in the camps in northern Syria may continue to pose a risk to the EU. On this point, the Presidency suggests that information provided by third countries on potentially dangerous foreign nationals should be integrated into the databases of the European SIS or that this information should be better evaluated.
Calling on Member States to better share information on individuals at risk and to step up efforts against radicalisation on their soil, the Presidency suggests other areas of action, such as online gambling, which could also be the subject of particular attention. Terrorists are reportedly increasingly using the online gaming communication system to discuss their plans.
Links to notes: https://bit.ly/2TVKGHb and https://bit.ly/38daozk (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)