Swiss voters will go to the polls on Sunday 27 September to decide whether or not to confirm their commitment to freedom of movement with the EU, as the right-wing SVP party has proposed an initiative calling for the rejection of the agreement.
The federal popular initiative ‘For a moderate immigration’ (limitation initiative) provides that “Switzerland regulates the immigration of foreigners autonomously”. “Negotiations will be conducted so that the Agreement of 21 June 1999 between the Swiss Confederation, party of the first part, and the European Community and its Member States, party of the second part, on the free movement of persons will cease to be in force within twelve months of the acceptance” of this initiative.
The polls were rather reassuring in recent days (60 to 65% against), making observers in Brussels relatively confident.
This is not the first time the Swiss have voted on free movement: a resounding vote in 2014 (see EUROPE 11015/1) limiting labour immigration from the EU created a chill: the Commission almost immediately froze programmes such as Horizon 2020.
The initiative was then implemented, but in a moderate manner. At that time, accompanying measures were also adopted, measures to protect Swiss workers from possible dumping by Europeans.
Is Switzerland going to initiate a ‘Swissexit’? The European Commission has been refusing to comment in recent days on “this politically important moment”, said Dana Spinant, its spokesperson. In any case, no one wants to see a new crisis break out when negotiations with London are already tense.
A successful vote would in any case lead to the scheduled termination of most of the bilateral agreements.
The ‘return’ of the framework agreement
There are more than 120 of them, as the European External Action Service aptly recalled this week, and it is precisely for this reason that both sides committed themselves in 2013 to drawing up an institutional framework agreement that lays down horizontal rules applicable to five major agreements and all future market access agreements.
It was finalised at the end of 2018 under the Jean-Claude Juncker Commission, but has not yet been able to obtain majority support in Switzerland. In Davos in January 2020, Ursula von der Leyen and Swiss President Simonetta Sommaruga agreed that nothing would happen until the vote on freedom of movement had taken place.
It was to take place on 27 May, before Covid-19 delayed it. Now that this quiet period has ended, the framework agreement should be back on the table shortly after Sunday’s vote.
As Dana Spinant recalled this week, “our position has not changed”, and the Commission is still waiting for a clear signal from the Swiss Federal Council to commit itself to resolving the fate of this framework agreement. This is the message that Ursula von der Leyen will no doubt convey on Sunday evening to this very close partner, the EU’s fourth largest trading partner after the United States, China and the United Kingdom. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)