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Europe Daily Bulletin No. 12554

8 September 2020
Contents Publication in full By article 31 / 31
Kiosk / Kiosk
No. 020

Is it tomorrow yet?

In this slim volume, the Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Kratsev looks at the unprecedented phenomenon that is Covid-19, with a particular focus on Europe where, he argues, its political impact will be the greatest, because the pandemic will challenge the very foundations of the European project – particularly the principle of interdependence, which is the most solid guarantee of security and prosperity. This is why the author considers that the European Union will never be the same again once the crisis is over. It could fall apart, turn into a modern-day version of the Holy Roman Empire – a union in name only – or, at the other extreme, achieve strategic autonomy. The European Union has always been the golden child of globalisation, but the very threat of deglobalisation could make it even more solid and more integrated. One thing is certain, the author stresses: it will not recover easily from this crisis.

The author does not share the fears of commentators who predict that nationalist and populist rhetoric and a tendency for countries to turn inwards on themselves will prosper in the context of temporary border closures. He considers that comparisons between the current pandemic and the migration crisis of 2015 fails to take two aspects into account. The first of these is that the social distancing policy, while giving States extraordinary powers, also reinforce local communities and regional identities; the second is that the closure of the European borders could well throw the limitations of nationalism into sharp relief. With economic concerns dominating the public debate, Europeans will probably realise that unlike events of the 19th century, nationalism constitutes an economic roadblock. Certainly, although the United States and China cherish the illusion of their self-sufficiency and the European Union could also benefit from a certain amount of well-placed “deglobalisation”, small European nations will not be able to bank on economic nationalism. Europeans will very soon understand that the only protection they have is the very specific kind provided by the protectionism offered to them by their alliance with the rest of the continent.

This latest crisis is nonetheless having a considerable social and economic impact, with a large inter-generational dimension. The author explains that in debates on the risks brought about by climate change, the youngest members of society criticise their parents for failing to think of the future. Coronavirus reverses this dynamic: the older members of society are now in the most vulnerable position and it is the reluctance of the younger ones to change their lifestyles that is putting them under threat. If the crisis were to continue indefinitely, this inter-generational conflict would intensify. This is particularly the case since, if it is proven that Covid-19 is unquestionably more dangerous to the elderly, it is the younger generation that will suffer the most from the economic effect of the pandemic. The “millennials” of southern Europe will have lived through two major crises before the age of 35, Kratsev stresses, reiterating that 40% of young Italians and half of young Spaniards were unemployed in the middle of the last decade.

His reflections on the impact of coronavirus lead the author to identify seven paradoxes: (1) Covid-19 lays bare the dark underbelly of globalisation, but also acts as a driving force for more globalisation; (2) it accelerates the tendency towards deglobalisation, but reveals the limits of renationalisation; (3) fear of the virus initially reinforced the feeling of national unity, but social and political divisions are likely to become worse over time; (4) the virus brought democracy to a halt, but in so doing, it limited the general appetite for authoritarianism; (5) while the European Union was conspicuous by its absence when the crisis first broke, the pandemic could threaten its future like no other, as it could end up being mired in pointlessness; (6) the pandemic has undoubtedly raised the ghosts of the last three major crises shake Europe, but the previous scenarios have not recurred; it has allowed a pooling of debt and relaxing of the budgetary constraints on the States, which would have been unthinkable previously; (7) while a return to a national logic was the inevitable response to a crisis of this scale, a united Europe and institutions in Brussels invested with additional powers in the event of emergency could prove, in a world lacking leadership from America and divided by the rivalry between it and China, the only realistic solution when the time comes to tackle the next phase of the crisis and to prepare, in the words of this reviewer, to ride out another major crisis, of whatever nature.

Olivier Jehin

 

Ivan Kratsev. Is it tomorrow yet? Paradoxes of the pandemic. Premier Parallèle. ISBN: 978-2-85061-054-7. 118 pages. €12,00

 

Elf Europese stemmen

In this short, highly readable and fascinating work, eleven voices, or actually twelve by my own count, offer a rich tapestry of opinions and analysis concerning Europe and the challenges it must face. Sometimes in indirect form, more frequently in the form of an interview already published in 2019, these texts take us on a journey through the continent and its problems as seen by 12 Europeans of a range of sensitivities and origins, some of them very well known, others far less so.

The book is a continuation of the work by Dutch journalist Geert Mak, “Grote verwachtingen, which we reviewed in the ninth edition of the Kiosk dated 12 November 2019, and this addition to it covers the coronavirus. It allows Mak to correct what I consider the false impression his previous work gave certain readers and commentators. Several of these, for instance in Belgian, thought that they detected a form of Euroscepticism in what was frequently in fact nothing more than entirely justified criticism of the way the EU functions on an institutional level. “To survive in the 21st century as the Netherlands, Belgium or France, we need to work together. Simply to survive. Also to tackle the issue of the climate. And, in particular, to ensure our independence from powers such as Russia, China and America. We are being played off against each other, mercilessly. If we stand divided we will be, to borrow a pretty Flemish expression, ‘a little bird for the cat’”, he stresses, although he still finds many grounds for hope in the current climate (our translation throughout). During the coronavirus crisis, the European Union was more reactive than ever, Mak stresses, condemning the attitude of the Dutch finance minister Wopke Hoekstra, who appeared to struggle to understand the urgency of the situation (“Hoekstra seems to think that the crisis stretches from Nijkerk to Gorredijk, when in fact it is a matter of European policy and is playing out before European public opinion”, Mak observes), and that of Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who deliberately offended his partners by arriving at the European Council with a biography of Chopin under his arm. “The Dutch mistake rudeness for frankness. This is the Dutch disease”, the journalist adds, deploring an attitude that has simply increased the gap of mistrust between the south and north of Europe, although the EU has finally managed to adopt an appropriate recovery plan.

The criticism made by Belgian political scientist Jonathan Holslag of the institutions and member states of the European Union is violent, but just as fair. Holslag criticises a short-sighted external policy based on a “brothel mentality” in which member states are prepared to make any and all compromises in order to preserve their immediate minor interests. Concerning the acquisition of the American F-35 fighter jet, this simply underlined the weakness of Europeans who are incapable of building one themselves. “I called this ‘Europe’s gunpowder moment’. Like the Chinese who once failed to understand the full application of gunpowder, we have too little understanding today of the technical revolutions underway”, notes Holslag, who goes on to express his virulent criticism of the European competition policy: “our great weakness as Europeans stems from the fact that the want to be more Catholic than the Pope. Tackling cartels extremely aggressively internally, breaking up large industrial groups, while we allow the Americans and Chinese to penetrate our market with companies that have virtual monopolies”. The political scientist also speaks out against nationalists and populists, like Hungary’s Viktor Orban, who “postures as this protector of Christian Europe, when all it means to him is an enormous subsidy vehicle (…). He attacks Brussels whilst opening up his own country to Russian oligarchs and the Chinese to come help themselves”. As for Boris Johnson, he wants his country back, but towards Saudi Arabia he conducts “the most shameful open-door policy you can imagine”. “He sings the praises of Saudi Arabia’s Prince Bin Salaman just to secure an investment of 60 billion in the City of London”, observes Holslag, adding: “nationalists make a disaster of their country, far worse than the pragmatic politicians of the last 40 years”.

Each of the other ten voices presented in this compilation deserves a paragraph of their own, but there is unfortunately not room to quote all of them. But they include: - the French journalist Guillaume Dasquié, whose theme is terrorism; - Russian dissident Vitali Manski, who writes about the freedom of the press in Russia; - former member of the European Parliament Eva Joly, on the banking crisis in Iceland and welcoming the progress made by the EU in the fight against financial crime and protection of whistleblowers; - German artist and activist Jennifer Rooch Naiobis (Extinction Rebellion) on the climate; - Polish theatre director Michal Zadara on anti-Semitism in Poland; - the German volunteer Mattea Weihe, who writes about refugees and their experience on board vessels of the organisation Sea Watch in the Mediterranean. (O.J.)

 

Nicoline Baartman, Colin van Heezik, Geert Mak and others. Elf Europese stemmen. Atlas Contact. ISBN: 978-9-045-04247-3. 144 pages. €18,00

 

The Good Country Equation

Simon Anholt is a British researcher, lecturer and political adviser who has devoted many years of work to the reputations of countries and, in 2014, developed the concept of the “Good Country” and a classification of all countries (Good Country Index), which may be found easily on the Internet (http://www.goodcountry.org ). In summary, this classification, which takes account of national contributions in the fields of technology, culture, health, peace and global stability, the climate and prosperity, is based on the founding principle that the best way for a government to improve its country’s image (a frequent concern) is to increase its contribution in service of the planet and all of humanity. It is worth noting that it is member states of the European Union that currently hold the top 10 places in this classification, with Finland at the top of the pile. Canada takes 11th place.

With the charm and humour that is characteristic of any British lecturer or diplomat, Anholt takes us with him on his travels to the four corners of the planet, from Chile to Mexico, the Faroe Isles to Afghanistan, from Botswana to Russia. Over the course of the book, we meet Michelle Bachelet, Vladimir Putin and many others, with a smattering of advice offered by Anholt various political leaders, although this is done with a certain degree of diplomatic reserve. There are suggestions that have been implemented, such as the idea of introducing a tax in Bhutan to promote selective tourism and avoid the negative consequences of mass tourism, and those that were not acted upon, such as loaning works of art languishing in the archives of the museums of Tuscany to private individuals.

This is all very well, but what is the point of it? This is the question that occurs to the reader, even though the book becomes highly readable after the first few chapters. After many twists and turns and an unbelievable number of anecdotes, the light appears at the end of the tunnel. Anholt sets out to explain a procedure that may sometimes appear naive, but which is completely geared towards humanism, international cooperation and solidarity between peoples. It is a call to politicians to go beyond national interests alone to take account of the interests of others. And it is even an appeal to citizens the world over to push them in this direction. The battle is obviously not won, but this is no reason not to wonder, in such an inter-dependent and inter-connected world as the one we live in, what the common challenges are and what e balanced solutions could help to preserve the interests of each human group. (O.J.)    

 

Simon Anholt. The Good Country Equation – How We Can Repair the World in One Generation. Berrett-Koehler Publishers. ISBN: 978-1-5230-8961-1. 258 pages. €18,00

 

Le Brexit… et après ?

The latest edition of the review of the European Union devotes a dossier to Brexit and its legal consequences. It includes, amongst other things, an article by Thierry Chopin (Université catholique de Lille and Institut Jacques Delors), condemning as illusory the Singapore model so often praised by Brexiteers as a possible option for the United Kingdom as of 1 January next year. The author points out that the UK’s ports are underdeveloped, particularly when compared to those of the EU at Antwerp and Rotterdam. In another article, Prof Jörg Gerkrath (University of Luxembourg) suggests revising article 50 to introduce a reference to the acquired rights of European citizens. Christophe Maubernard (Université de Montpellier) discusses the complexity of dispute settlement between the European Union and the United Kingdom following the withdrawal of the latter, irrespective of the outcome of the negotiations currently under way. Fabrice Andreone (DG Research at the European Commission) outlines the consequences of Brexit for European public office, including the fate of the British nationals employed by the institutions. (O.J.)

 

Sylvie Torcol, Thierry Chopin et autalres. Le Brexit… et après? Revue de l’Union européenne, no. 640, lie-August 2020. Dalloz. €50,03

 

Introduction au droit des organisations internationales

This work, the fruit of many years of research, presents the common rules that can be identified in the heterogeneous and complex world of the international institutions. Daniel Dormoy, emeritus professor at the Université Paris-Sud, writes at length about the situation in the European Union, describing for instance its relations with the United Nations, its participation in other international organisations, the common foreign and security policy and restrictive measures, but also the application of the European Human Rights Convention and the article 50 withdrawal procedure. (O.J.)

 

Daniel Dormoy. Introduction au droit des organisations internationales. Bruylant. ISBN: 978-2-8027-6659-9. 205 pages. €70,00

Contents

EU RESPONSE TO COVID-19
SECTORAL POLICIES
EXTERNAL ACTION
ECONOMY - FINANCE - BUSINESS
NEWS BRIEFS
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