The European Commission has updated its analysis of the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on world and European trade on the basis of newly available statistics. Imports of goods and services into the EU will experience a sharper slowdown than originally envisaged by the Commission.
Measures adopted to contain the spread of the coronavirus, in particular temporary closures of businesses, borders and lockdown policies, will lead to a sharp contraction in the level of economic output, household spending, investment and international trade.
Thus, the Commission services' analysis forecasts a decrease in world trade for 2020 of between 10% and 16%: a shock, therefore, revised upwards compared to its first estimate of 9.7% published last April (see EUROPE 12470/18).
The Union's trade in goods and services with the rest of the world will also slow down significantly. The Commission now estimates that this reduction will be in the range of 9% to 15% for exports (estimated reduction of 9.2% in April). The range for imports has been widely raised to between 11% and 14%, a drastic reduction from the 8.8% initially imagined.
Finally, in absolute terms, according to the latest available statistics, there will be a fall in extra-European exports of between €282 and €470 billion (285 in April) and a fall in extra-EU27 imports of between €313 and €398 billion (€240 in April).
However, the Commission confirms its conclusion on the sectoral impact of this trade crisis. The fallout will be particularly painful for the leading manufacturing, transport equipment and machinery sectors. As for the primary sectors and services, they will be less affected, despite a contraction now estimated at 15%, i.e. five points more than the April statistics predicted.
To view the analysis: https://bit.ly/2UabLXI (Original version in French by Hermine Donceel)